Adani Green Energy shares up 16% in 6 months, Jefferies sees 35% more upside in Gautam Adani-owned stock | Target price
On why Jefferies is bullish on this Gautam Adani-owned stock, the global investment bank said, “Adani Green’s (AGEL) stock price has corrected 22% from its peak and now trades at 20x 1Y forward EBITDA, which appears attractive given its 30% FY26-30E EBITDA CAGR. We see industry-level triggers for strong power demand and improved utilisation driven by higher temperatures. These should largely offset potential higher interest costs from RBI rate hikes and ease investor concerns.”
The global investment bank believes recent news reports suggest that El Niño could persist into CY27, implying the CY26 peak deficit could recur. Coal stocks are at critical levels of less than 7 days. State Electricity Boards (SEBs) are already discussing locking in 2027 power as shortages could reappear with rising temperatures. AGEL is swiftly ramping up its Battery Energy Storage Solutions (BESS) segment. It has an installed BESS capacity of 6.6 GWh with plans of 10 GWh+ end FY27E. This is likely to accelerate given the strong demand for power. Also, our 6.5-6.8 GW FY28E-30E annual generation capacity addition could see upside.
Jefferies India report said that Aani Green Energy’s net debt-to-EBITDA should decline to 7.1x by FY30E vs 8.9x in FY26, on our capacity assumption of 44 GW. Promoter group subscribed to 63 mn warrants in 2024 at Rs1,480.75/sh and planned an equity investment of Rs93.5 bn in AGEL. 25% was paid in 2024, and the balance was infused in Apr-July 2025. Largely, AGEL’s installed capacity is tied up under long-term PPAs, which provide steady cash flow visibility and lend confidence in B/S improvement.
Giving a ‘buy’ tag to Adani Green Energy shares, the Jefferies India report said, that the recent RBI rate hike has raised some concerns around impact on earnings, multiple offsetting factors, as highlighted above, should help cushion the impact and limit the earnings drag relative to what the headline rate increase may imply. With the 22% stock correction from its peak, broadly in line with the sector, it is now trading at a reasonable 20x 1-year forward EV/EBITDA.
“We continue to see risk-reward as attractive and retain our BUY rating. Our Rs1,695 PT values the company at 20x EV/EBITDA at Sept 28E, which is a premium to JSW Energy’s (JSW IN, Rs462, Buy) 14x, given its higher growth and pure-renewable assets. Risks: 1) execution delays, especially at Khavda; and 2) aggressive bidding,” the Jefferies India report concluded.
Asit Manohar has nearly two decades of experience in the mainstream media. In this period, he has served esteemed media organisations like NDTV Profit, The Economic Times, and Zee Business. He has been working at LiveMint Digital since April 2021. During these two decades of journey in mainstream media, Asit has mainly covered external affairs, markets and personal finance. However, his earliest beats include railways, SME, MSME, and politics (Congress beat). Some of his features on political, economic, and foreign policy are documented in the parliamentary records. <br><br> While pursuing his MA (Mass Communication, Session 2004-06), Asit began his media career as a stringer at All India Radio in Varanasi. At AIR Varanasi, Asit worked with the Gyanvani, Yuvvani and Vividh Bharti teams. After working for nearly one year at AIR Varanasi, he shifted to print journalism and started working as a stringer for the HT Media Ltd, Varanasi. At HT Media Ltd in Varanasi, he covered the BHU beat. <br><br> Asit has also worked with some brokerage houses. He has worked with Religare Broking and India Infoline, where he assisted the research team in developing and executing trade strategies for intraday cash, F&O, and commodities. <br><br> Asit is a Gold Medalist in MA (Mass Communication) from BHU, Varanasi. He did his BSc. (Hons) in Mathematics from Magadh University, Bodh Gaya. Asit was a National Talent Scholarship holder during his senior secondary studies (1988-91).
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HomeMarketsStock MarketsAdani Green Energy shares up 16% in 6 months, Jefferies sees 35% more upside in Gautam Adani-owned stock | Target price
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