CarTrade Tech share price target: UBS bets on OLX India’s five-year growth, sees 34% upside - here's why
CarTrade Tech share price target: CarTrade Tech could be entering a new phase of growth as its OLX India business expands beyond seller services into financing, dealer partnerships, subscriptions, logistics and advertising, according to UBS. The brokerage has maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock and a price target of ₹4,000, implying an upside of around 36%.
In a recent research report, UBS argued that investors may be underestimating OLX India's monetisation potential following its acquisition by CarTrade Tech. The brokerage said the platform had improved its user experience and profitability under its new ownership, while several opportunities to generate revenue from buyers and transactions remained relatively underdeveloped.
“We believe the market is missing out on its growth potential and overall TAM, with multiple revenue drivers, such as buyer and seller subscriptions, dealer partnerships, financing, escrow, logistics and advertising," it added.
UBS sees OLX India as a potential five-year growth story. Its upside scenario suggests the platform could increase revenue nearly fivefold by FY31, while its base case points to growth of 3.8 times. Successful execution could also act as a re-rating catalyst for CarTrade Tech, the brokerage said.
"We believe successful execution of OLX could be a major re-rating catalyst for CarTrade, one of our top mid-cap picks," it highlghted.
CarTrade Tech shares fell over 5% during the day's trade to hit an intraday low of ₹2,990. Despite the decline, the stock remained around 9% below its 52-week high of ₹3,291.35, recorded in November last year. It had touched a 52-week low of ₹1,522.85 in March 2026.
The stock has declined 0.5% over the past month but gained 7% in three months and 68% in six months. It has risen 21% over the past year and delivered multibagger returns over five years, surging 124%.
Under its previous ownership, OLX India struggled with cost inefficiencies, an impaired inventory model, fake buyers and unreliable sellers, according to UBS. CarTrade's management has since addressed many of these issues and improved profitability, with the brokerage highlighting operating margins of more than 30%.
The next phase of growth could come from monetising OLX's large user base across more stages of a transaction. In FY26, around 90% of OLX India's revenue came from seller services, including listing fees and related services. UBS believes the platform can diversify its income by introducing paid buyer subscriptions, expanding paid seller services and increasing partnerships with used-car dealers.
Financing facilitation is another potential growth driver. OLX could connect buyers with lending partners and earn fees on loans for used vehicles listed and sold through its platform. The brokerage also sees opportunities in escrow and logistics services, which could help bring more transactions onto the platform, as well as advertising.
UBS drew a comparison with eBay, whose revenue nearly doubled over a decade despite broadly flat gross merchandise volume. Its take rate increased from around 7.8% in 2015 to 13.9% in 2025, supported by payments, logistics, trust services and advertising. The brokerage believes OLX could follow a similar path by capturing more value from each transaction instead of relying only on growth in listings and traffic.
UBS said: “The key takeaway for OLX is that meaningful revenue growth does not require a step change in traffic or listings, but deeper monetisation across the transaction life-cycle.”
The brokerage's optimism rests on the assumption that OLX can successfully introduce these services and increase their adoption over time. Slower-than-expected monetisation remains one of the key downside risks identified in the report.
UBS estimates that OLX India's revenue could rise from approximately ₹2.2 billion in FY26 to ₹11.8 billion by FY31 in its upside scenario, representing nearly fivefold growth. This is around 43% above the brokerage's FY31 revenue estimate, underlining the additional opportunity it sees if monetisation progresses faster.
UBS expects paid auto and non-auto seller services to generate ₹2.9 billion and ₹3.6 billion, respectively, by FY31. Dealer partnerships could add ₹1.8 billion, used-car financing ₹2 billion, buyer subscriptions ₹810 million, and escrow and logistics ₹634 million.
For CarTrade Tech as a whole, UBS expects revenue to increase from ₹7,793 million in FY26 to ₹9,696 million in FY27 and ₹12,106 million in FY28.
The brokerage also highlighted risks, including slower OLX monetisation, a structural shift towards inventory-led models, stagnation in digital spending by automobile manufacturers and a slowdown in auction volumes that could affect remarketing growth.
Pranati Deva is a seasoned financial journalist with over a decade of experience in high-pressure newsroom environments, currently working as a Senior Sub Editor at LiveMint. Over the years, she has developed a reputation for sharp editorial judgement, a strong grasp of market dynamics, and the ability to translate complex financial developments into clear, engaging stories for a wide audience. <br><br> Her core areas of coverage include stock markets, leading listed companies, currencies, and commodities, with a particular strength in fast-paced, real-time market reporting. She is known for handling breaking market news, earnings-driven stock movements, and macroeconomic developments with speed, accuracy, and context—qualities that are essential in financial journalism. <br><br> Pranati has built a diverse and credible professional track record across some of India’s most respected news organisations, including MintGenie, CNBC-TV18, Business Standard and EconomicTimes.com. During her stints at these platforms, she produced data-driven market stories, curated and steered live blogs during volatile trading sessions, and conducted interviews with market veterans, fund managers, economists, and industry experts. Her work often combines on-ground reporting with analytical depth, helping readers make sense of daily market fluctuations and longer-term trends. An alumnus of the Symbiosis Institute of Media and Communications and Hansraj College, University of Delhi, Pranati brings a strong academic foundation to her journalism. She specialises in real-time financial reporting, with a keen focus on precision, balance, and insight, aiming to decode market movements in a way that is both informative and accessible to readers across experience levels.
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