Dhanteras 2026 today: Buy gold at current rates or avoid? Shopping guide - 20% price down from 2026 peak; Experts' views
Dhanteras 2026: Gold prices have witnessed significant volatility in 2026, with the yellow metal undergoing a sharp correction after scaling record highs earlier this year.
As investors prepare for Dhanteras 2026, traditionally considered an auspicious occasion to purchase gold, the key question is whether the recent decline offers an opportunity to buy or whether prices could fall further.
Domestic gold prices have corrected more than 20% from their 2026 peak, driven by concerns over inflation, higher crude oil prices, geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve, according to brokerage firm Axis Direct.
Despite the near-term weakness, market experts remain constructive on gold's long-term outlook. They believe the recent correction has improved entry valuations for long-term investors, although traders should remain cautious about short-term price movements.
Gold has delivered extraordinary returns over the past five years, benefiting from global economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases and changing expectations around interest rates.
According to Axis Direct, domestic gold prices have climbed from approximately ₹47,600 per 10 grams in November 2021 to around ₹1,42,750 in late October 2026, ahead of Dhanteras.
This translates into an absolute return of nearly 200% and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24.53% over the five-year period.
However, the latest year has been particularly volatile. According to Monarch Networth Capital, 24-carat retail gold was trading at approximately ₹1,30,860 per 10 grams on Dhanteras 2025 (October 18, 2025). Ahead of Dhanteras 2026, prices were around ₹1,40,000- ₹1,41,500 per 10 grams, representing a year-on-year gain of approximately 7-8%.
The difference between gold's five-year performance and its relatively modest year-on-year gains highlights the sharp correction witnessed in 2026 after the metal's exceptional rally.
With gold prices correcting sharply from their record highs, experts believe Dhanteras 2026 could offer an opportunity for long-term investors to accumulate the precious metal. However, they advise against making large lump-sum investments amid uncertainty over interest rates, crude oil prices and geopolitical developments.
Axis Direct believes the current correction of more than 20% from the peak has made gold attractive for investors who missed the previous rally.
The brokerage said, "This presents long-term investors who missed the rally with a compelling opportunity to add gold in a staggered manner to their existing portfolios."
It expects some volatility in the yellow metal due to higher interest rates. However, if macroeconomic and geopolitical developments turn favourable, gold could deliver returns of approximately 20-25% by next Dhanteras.
Axis Direct has set a domestic gold price target of ₹1,65,000- ₹1,71,000 per 10 grams by next Dhanteras.
Meanwhile, Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst - Commodities, Axis Direct also maintained a bullish long-term outlook despite near-term weakness in gold prices.
She said that while the precious metal could face further corrections due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike, the remaining downside risk is estimated at approximately 5-8%.
However, the outlook could change if geopolitical tensions ease and inflationary pressures moderate. Such developments could allow the US Federal Reserve to shift towards interest rate cuts, providing a strong long-term catalyst for gold.
Gaglani recommends that investors begin accumulating gold in a staggered and systematic manner at current lower valuations, setting a target of ₹1,65,000- ₹1,80,000 per 10 grams by next Dhanteras.
On the other hand, Dhruv Joglekar, Assistant Fund Manager at Monarch PMS, believes the sharp correction in gold prices has removed speculative excesses, making the current levels attractive for long-term investors.
According to Monarch Networth Capital's valuation model, which compares above-ground gold stocks with reserve-currency money supply, gold's estimated fair-value range stands at $3,248-$4,595 per ounce, with a midpoint of $3,922. The October low of around $3,870 remained within this estimated range.
Joglekar said, “For long-term investors, this Dhanteras represents a classic entry point. Speculative froth has been purged, while the underlying macroeconomic tailwinds remain intact.”
Vaamanaa covers business and stock market news. Started in 2020, she has been producing news on digital platforms for over 4.5 years now. She writes on markets, commodities, IPOs, and industry. She has worked for news channels like Jagran New Media and Business Insider India. You can reach out to her at vaamanaa.sethi@htdigital.in.
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