Dividend king PSU stock: Down 23% in 6 months! Nuvama sees 42% upside; target price, rationale

Shares of PSU ended marginally lower on Friday, November 13, reversing all its gains made over the previous sessions in the week. Volatility in the PSU stock coincided with the announcement of second quarter results for the financial year 2026-27.

The government-backed iron ore mining giant is likely to see an uptick in volume in the second half of financial year 2026-27 as supplies have now normalised after monsoon-led logistic disruption, according to Nuvama which sees nearly 42% upside potential in the stock.

NMDC share price outlook

NMDC reported lower-than-expected second quarter EBITDA of ₹19.4 billion, which is down 3% on an annual basis. However, EBITDA/t was marginally lower by ₹17/t on an annual basis to ₹1,853, weighed by higher royalty and premium cost and lower sales volume, noted Nuvama in its report. The brokerage also reduced its FY27 EBITDA by nearly 8% to factor in the performance in the first half of FY27.

NMDC share price target

Nuvama maintained a ‘Buy’ rating for the stock with a target price of ₹100 per share for a period of 12 months. “Retain ‘BUY’ with a TP of INR100 (earlier INR97), valuing at 9x FY28E and FY29E average EPS; trades at 6.4x FY28E EPS at CMP.’

NMDC is one of the top PSUs with attractive dividend yield and strong dividend history. The PSU stock has rewarded investors with dividend continuously over the last twenty five years. The PSU stock’s annual dividend yield stood at 3.6% in the financial year 2025-26.

NMDC share price trend

The stock closed 1.76% lower at ₹69.90 per share on BSE with a market capitalisation of ₹61,454.80 crore on Friday, November 13. Its share price value has declined 2.17% in one month, 17.74% in three months, and 23% in six months.