Diwali 2026: All gold, silver ETFs log second month of negative returns in October; is it time to invest? Experts advise

Gold and silver ETFs recorded their second consecutive month of negative returns in October 2026, raising questions about whether investors should increase their exposure to precious metals this Diwali.

Gold ETFs (and funds) posted a category average return of -5.22% in October, compared with -4.58% in September 2026. This followed positive returns of 8.66% in August, marking two consecutive months of losses.

Silver ETFs also remained under pressure, with category average returns declining to -17.16% in October, against -6.33% in September, following positive returns of 8.18% in August.

No gold or silver ETF recorded positive returns in October 2026. Zerodha Silver ETF was the worst performer, falling 17.52%, while Zerodha Gold ETF declined 5.28%. Experts explain whether this correction offers an investment opportunity and which metal investors should favour this Diwali.

“Two red months don't break a long-term case, but they do reset expectations. The driver this time is rates, not demand. Markets are pricing tighter US policy, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals,” said Vedant Gupte, Co-Founder and CEO of investment platform Trackk.

Currently, gold and silver ETFs are around 26% and 50% below their respective highs. Before investing, check your existing gold holdings, including jewellery, and keep gold and silver within 10-15% of your total portfolio, said Manish P. Hingar, Chartered Accountant, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Fintoo.

“If you have a habit of buying gold every Dhanteras or Diwali or a certain amount, you can stick to that and will actually get a higher quantity given the fall in value of both gold and silver. It is like a yearly SIP that should continue,” said Harsh Vardhan Dawar, ACA, CFA, FRM, Founder, Wealth Cafe.

For fresh investments, investors must revisit their asset allocation. If gold and silver have a 10% allocation in your portfolio and you are already close to that number, avoid adding more money, he added.

Satish Dondapati, Fund Manager, Kotak Mahindra AMC, said the recent correction does not change gold's long-term investment case, particularly as high interest rates may not be sustainable for an extended period.

Gupte said investors should judge gold over five years, not one. For silver, even three years can be misleading because of its volatility. “Treat it as a five-year-plus holding or not at all,” he said.

Over a 3- and 5-year time frame, both gold and silver ETFs have performed strongly. Judging gold over a few months is incorrect. Gold is a long-term hedge and should be viewed over the course of a full market cycle, Hingar added.

Based on expert views, investors should evaluate gold and silver ETFs from a long-term perspective rather than focusing on short-term returns.

All gold and silver ETFs have delivered positive one-year returns, with category averages of 15.79% and 25.04%, respectively. Here are the top three performers in each category based on their three- and five-year returns.

*Source: Value Research, CAGR as on 2 November 2026

UTI Gold ETF and LIC MF Gold ETF are among the top performers across both three- and five-year periods, making them worth considering for investors.

Dondapati said, “Gold may remain under pressure in the near term, with further volatility possible. Investors should avoid investing the entire amount at current levels and instead consider staggered buying on declines.”

No silver ETF has completed a five-year track record yet. Based on three-year returns, ABSL Silver ETF leads with 34.69%, followed by ICICI Prudential Silver ETF at 34.65% and Mirae Asset Silver ETF at 34.58%.

Dawar said the gold-silver ratio represents the number of ounces of silver required to purchase one ounce of gold. Currently, this ratio stands at 79, indicating that gold is relatively more expensive than silver.

However, both metals have been falling together, resulting in overall negative returns for investors. The best approach is to have a set asset allocation for these metals in your portfolio and stick to it, he added.

Gupte, however, favours gold this Diwali, with investments staggered over the next few months.

“Gold should be the core precious-metal holding for most investors, and current levels offer a better entry than anything we saw in the first half of the year. Silver has fallen harder, but it trades more like an industrial commodity and can stay volatile for longer. Keep it a small satellite at most,” he added.

Sheetal Goel is a Content Producer at Livemint, where she covers corporate developments, personal finance, business trends, markets, and SEBI-related updates. She focuses on simplifying complex financial concepts and presenting them in a clear, reader-friendly manner, thereby helping audiences better understand investment trends, personal finance, and market developments. Her writing focuses on making finance more accessible to everyday readers while maintaining clarity, accuracy, and relevance. <br><br> She holds a degree in Economics (Hons.) along with an MBA in Finance, which has helped her develop a strong foundation in financial analysis, market understanding, and business reporting. Before joining journalism, she worked with finance and broking firms, where she closely followed market developments, investment strategies, and evolving industry trends. This practical exposure strengthened her understanding of financial markets. She has also written content across multiple formats and platforms, including YouTube, LinkedIn, and Instagram. <br><br> Over time, she has developed expertise in covering market-linked stories, investor-focused topics, and regulatory updates in a simplified yet informative style. She also enjoys reading and listening to Hindi poetry, reflecting her appreciation for literature and creative expression beyond the world of markets and numbers.

Get Latest real-time updates

Catch all the Instant Personal Loan, Business Loan, Business News, Money news, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.

HomeMoneyPersonal FinanceDiwali 2026: All gold, silver ETFs log second month of negative returns in October; is it time to invest? Experts advise

✕

Wait for it…

Oops! Looks like you have exceeded the limit to bookmark the image. Remove some to bookmark this image.