Diwali shopping 2026: CPI inflation crosses 5% in September, may hit 6.8% in November — what item-wise data reveals

With Diwali 2026 approaching, households tend to spend more on groceries, festive clothing, home decor, gifts and other seasonal purchases. How have prices of these items changed over the past year, and which expenses could put additional pressure on festive budgets?

According to the latest data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), CPI retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September 2026, from 4.83% in August 2026.

While prices in several household and festive-shopping categories have risen year on year, some items have recorded a decline in inflation or negative inflation. Here is what consumers should know before planning their 2026 Diwali shopping budget.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the prices of goods and services that households regularly buy, including food, beverages, clothing, transport and household products.

For example, if a basket of goods cost ₹1,000 in September 2025 and the same basket cost ₹1,055.40 in September 2026, the prices would have increased by 5.54% over the year.

However, overall CPI inflation does not mean every product has become more expensive at the same rate. The inflation rate for an individual category can be higher or lower than the headline figure.

The following table compares year-on-year inflation across selected categories relevant to festive shopping.

Source: MoSPI. Note: YoY CPI inflation; selected Diwali shopping items. Consumer item descriptions may differ from official CPI category names.

According to the All-India combined Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, silver jewellery recorded the highest inflation among the listed categories, at 87.8% in September 2026, although this was lower than 107.11% in August 2026. Food inflation rose to 7.74% from 5.97%, potentially adding to household spending on groceries, cooking ingredients and festive meals.

Inflation also increased across several other categories, including household utensils, clothing, furniture, appliances and travel.

However, the silver jewellery inflation figure needs to be interpreted carefully. An inflation rate of 87.8% means prices were, on average, 87.8% higher than in September 2025.

For example, if a comparable item of silver jewellery cost ₹10,000 in September 2025, its price would be approximately ₹18,780 in September 2026, assuming the same item and price basis. This does not mean prices fell between August and September 2026.

At the other end, vehicle prices recorded negative inflation of 2.56% in September. This indicates that the category's price index was lower than a year earlier.

According to SBI Research’s Ecowrap report, India’s retail inflation rose to 5.54% in September 2026, marking its highest reading under the revised CPI series and crossing the 5% mark for the first time.

The rise was driven largely by food inflation, which climbed to 7.74%, with onions, garlic and lemons recording steep price increases. The report expects CPI inflation to peak at 6.7%-6.8% in November 2026.

If inflation rises further, households could face additional pressure on their budgets as Diwali approaches. Food prices are particularly important because groceries and ingredients form a regular part of household spending, alongside seasonal purchases.

Sheetal Goel is a Content Producer at Livemint, where she covers corporate developments, personal finance, business trends, markets, and SEBI-related updates. She focuses on simplifying complex financial concepts and presenting them in a clear, reader-friendly manner, thereby helping audiences better understand investment trends, personal finance, and market developments. Her writing focuses on making finance more accessible to everyday readers while maintaining clarity, accuracy, and relevance. <br><br> She holds a degree in Economics (Hons.) along with an MBA in Finance, which has helped her develop a strong foundation in financial analysis, market understanding, and business reporting. Before joining journalism, she worked with finance and broking firms, where she closely followed market developments, investment strategies, and evolving industry trends. This practical exposure strengthened her understanding of financial markets. She has also written content across multiple formats and platforms, including YouTube, LinkedIn, and Instagram. <br><br> Over time, she has developed expertise in covering market-linked stories, investor-focused topics, and regulatory updates in a simplified yet informative style. She also enjoys reading and listening to Hindi poetry, reflecting her appreciation for literature and creative expression beyond the world of markets and numbers.

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HomeMoneyPersonal FinanceDiwali shopping 2026: CPI inflation crosses 5% in September, may hit 6.8% in November — what item-wise data reveals

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