Gold Steady as Rate-Hike Bets Ease, Oil Pushes Yields Higher

(Bloomberg) -- Gold was little changed as traders weighed easing bets on an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike against a surge in oil prices that pushed Treasury yields higher.

Bullion traded near $4,170 an ounce, after rising 1.6% Thursday, the most in more than two weeks. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Bangkok did not dispel expectations the Fed will hold rates later this month. The precious metals turned lower for part of the US session as long-end Treasury yields climbed, with Brent crude touching $110 a barrel for the first time since May.

Traders unwound bets on the probability of a quarter-point hike from a one-in-three chance to about 15% after the Fed chair’s speech. Higher interest rates are a headwind for gold, which doesn’t pay interest.  

“Warsh is deliberately trying to temper the market’s hawkish rate expectations and restore some stability to the Treasury market,” said Gerald Gan, chief investment officer at Reed Capital Partners. “While inflation remains a concern and further tightening cannot be ruled out, Warsh’s latest tone suggests little urgency to deliver consecutive rate hikes.” 

Gold has labored under expectations for increasing borrowing costs throughout the year. It’s fallen about a fifth since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran in late February, disrupting energy markets and fueling inflation. That’s prompted central banks to tighten monetary policy, with the Fed raising rates for the first time since 2023 last month.  

Gold is little changed this week after briefly gaining Thursday as concerns over the AI investment boom sparked a tech selloff and bond rally that pushed yields lower. The move followed hotter-than-expected US inflation, producer-price and retail-sales data.

Spot gold fell 0.1% to $4,168.49 at 04.25 p.m. in New York, while silver and palladium also fell. Platinum climbed 0.2%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was 0.2% lower.

--With assistance from Jack Ryan.

(Updates price, adds context on higher oil prices and yields)

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