How policy needs to catch up with India’s upcoming demographic reset
The dominant demographic story about India is that it is a country of young people. Statistically, that is true: India’s median age is estimated to be 29.2 years. It has close to a billion people of working age (15 to 64 years). But that is set to change. There are slow, yet significant, shifts in population structure that will lead to a demographic transition in the coming years.
To understand why, visualize the country in terms of three age slabs: children (0 to 14 years), working-age population (15 to 59 years) and older adults (60 years and above). The number of babies in India born peaked sometime in the early-2000s; by 2011, the share of children in the population had started declining. The share of working-age adults in the population is projected to peak by 2031, and then decline slowly.
As people live longer and fewer children are born, the share of those aged 60 and above—currently, about 10% of the population—is projected to double after two decades. These trends are all occurring at different speeds. By 2047, the target year to attain Viksit Bharat (developed India), all three shifts will be well underway. The result is that India will move towards a very different population structure.
This is not a crisis. Demographic shifts occur slowly, so there is a long runway before India loses its ‘youthful’ profile. But being aware of how the arithmetic is changing is crucial to rework policy priorities. The needs of each demographic cohort—children, working-age adults and the elderly—are distinct, yet deeply interconnected. This calls for a three-track policy approach, with each track geared towards managing the demographic reset, while ensuring inter-generational well-being.
Population rebalancing
The first track could focus on fertility, but viewed through the lens of population rebalancing, rather than population control. Research this year from the Economic Advisory Council (EAC) to the Prime Minister suggests that despite a steady decline in population growth, existing population schemes are driven by the old fears of a ‘population explosion’. As a result, national family planning programmes reward terminal methods such as surgical sterilizations.
These methods appear misplaced in the current scenario, when the total fertility rate (TFR)—the average number of children a woman would give birth to during her lifetime—is declining. It has even dropped below the replacement rate (TFR of 2.1 needed for a generation to replace itself without accounting for migration) in some states. For instance, Andhra Pradesh achieved below-replacement fertility more than two decades ago, largely by encouraging female sterilization. By 2024, nearly 70% of married women in the state were sterilized. Yet, it budgeted to incentivize more sterilizations per capita as compared to Uttar Pradesh, which has a higher fertility rate and where only 17% of married women have undergone sterilization.
The good news is that states have started changing their approach to population management. For instance, in 2026-27, Andhra Pradesh has not budgeted any fiscal resources to incentivize male or female sterilization (EAC working paper). Telangana and Rajasthan have withdrawn the two-child norm for local elections, and Madhya Pradesh for government jobs.
However, these policies are unlikely to result in a jump in births. Developed countries have tried monetary incentives for decades with almost no impact. Demographers cite a tipping point of 1.5. Once TFR goes below that level for an extended period, it alters social norms and pushes countries into a low-fertility trap (Lutz, Skirbekk, and Testa, 2006).
Data from the Sample Registration System (SRS) showed that eight states had slipped below the TFR tipping point by 2024, led by Delhi, Kerala, Telangana and West Bengal. It is likely that more states have followed or will follow. This is a vicious cycle: the rarer it is to have children, the less likely are future generations to become parents.
A pro-natal stance could reverse this doom loop by setting up “network effects”— in effect, by making it more common and normal to have more children. Indeed, social scientists note that the decision to have children is strongly influenced by friends, peers, and colleagues (Cavendish, Financial Times, 2026).
Elderly living
The second policy track should focus on the elderly. A recent study of longevity in India suggests that older adults want to do well along four dimensions: economic security, freedom to participate in work or community service, health and well-being, and social connectedness (Rohini Nilekani Philanthropies, Dalberg Advisers, Ashoka Changemakers, 2026). Ageing-related initiatives could address these gaps while drawing on international best practices. Policies for older adults could therefore be shaped around two broad ideas.
One, unlike in the West, families are the primary caregivers for most aged Indians. Notwithstanding the rapid growth of senior living homes, sending elders into such communities is not popular, with most households preferring to rely on external informal help if required. This underscores an urgent need to develop a dependable and affordable body of caregivers.
Keralam has taken the lead by passing a landmark law for elderly care last month. The law proposes a comprehensive legal framework, including registration and regulation of elder care centres, improvement in care-giving training and standards, and provision of financial and legal assistance to the elderly. A recent report by Niti Aayog set out a comprehensive framework for caregiving, highlighting the need for standardized training, accreditation and quality assurance, and improved remuneration and career paths for caregivers. If implemented, the recommendations will go a long way towards creating a robust caregiving ecosystem.
Other countries offer insights on supporting home-based elder care. China has a 9073 elder care model: 90% of the elderly are cared for at home, 7% in community care and 3% in elderly-living institutions. After a decade of pilot testing, China formally launched a long-term care insurance system this year to provide professional services or financial support for basic nursing and care, including home-based care, for the elderly and disabled. The scheme is expected to achieve nationwide coverage by 2028.
Singapore’s policies aim to promote inter-generational care. To enable older adults to age in their own homes, the government of Singapore provides “proximity” housing grants to help adult children live near their parents; and grants tax relief to eligible working mothers if grandparents provide childcare.
In the Indian context, given the government’s fiscal constraints and comparatively lower household incomes, neither scheme can be directly transplanted. But they can be tested in specific states or districts. For example, grants that enable multiple generations to live near or with each other may reduce outmigration of young adults from tier-II and tier-III cities. Alternatively, states could incentivize elder-friendly housing for multi-generation families in satellite towns to take the pressure off crowded metropolises.
All-round health
Two, many older adults face health challenges, which adds to the financial and emotional pressures of elder care. The healthy life expectancy at birth for Indians—the number of years a person can live with full health—is merely 58 years, much lower than the actual life expectancy of 73 years (WHO). India offers limited health coverage for all senior citizens above the age of 70 years under the Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana, and there is little effort to promote preventive healthcare. For instance, over 23% of adults aged 60 years or more were estimated to be overweight, leading to higher risk of diabetes and cardio-vascular disease.
Measures such as the creation of safe public spaces where older people can be physically active, community centres for social and intellectually stimulating activities, and vigorous campaigns to drive healthier food choices could improve health outcomes for the elderly. The efforts could be initiated by states and handed over to the private sector, and could count as corporate social responsibility (CSR) initiatives.
Accredited Social Health Activists (ASHAs) have the potential to facilitate ageing-related initiatives on the ground, as they already engage routinely with families for maternal and child health services. ASHA workers may be retrained to provide geriatric advice, screen for simple age-related ailments and guide towards early treatments. In ageing southern states, some ASHA workers may be trained exclusively for geriatric care, and incentivized with additional remuneration to make this shift.
This is a proven strategy: community health workers have been successfully deployed for preventive elder care in many countries. In Indonesia, the Posbindu programme provides community-based health promotion, disease prevention, and health screening services for the elderly. Nepal, culturally close to India, has gone a step further by mobilizing active older adults to serve as community health volunteers to promote health education and good practices. This aligns with what the average older adult wants: research suggests that one in three elderly Indians would like an opportunity to volunteer (RNP etc, 2026).
Combating loneliness is another important dimension of elder health care. To this end, Vietnam is experimenting with state-funded daycare centres that provide health services, companionship and care to seniors. Singapore has over 200 active ageing centres across the island that offer activities to boost the physical, mental and social health of seniors. Keralam, in collaboration with NGOs, runs “Pakalveedu” day care centres, which provide food, healthy activities, and counselling for the elderly; it is working to upgrade some of them into fully-equipped community resource centres. To be sure, there are multiple citizen-driven groups working in eldercare in other states, but formalizing these efforts through official channels, as Keralam is doing, could have a greater impact.
Social messaging, backed by actual action, can change the narrative around ageing. The experience of older adults brings crystallized intelligence into organizations and communities. Businesses can tap this wisdom by retraining and reskilling older employees. Programmes in continuing education and lifelong learning could be initiated by the government but supported (including with training resources) by the private sector.
India already has a large network of non-government organizations, private sector initiatives and citizen-led efforts to address the needs of its elderly population. The Niti Aayog’s Darpan portal lists over 100,000 non-profits working in this sector. What is missing is coordination, information sharing and collective action by the various actors in this sector. Therefore, creating common platforms that pool insights could help the government, private sector and NGOs to work together.
Cities for workforce
The third and most important policy track should address the working population. This cohort is crucial as it supports both children and older adults. Here India can take a leaf out of China’s playbook, which aims to build “youth-development oriented cities”— places where young adults want to work, live and raise families.
To this end, Chinese cities compete to offer the best deals: temporary free accommodation for job seekers, subsidized youth hostels, and family-friendly public spaces and activities. China has also linked its old and young astutely by pledging to convert its ‘silver economy’ into an economic engine by 2035. To this end, the government is encouraging a range of eldercare products and services, including technology embedded care services, elder-friendly products, rehabilitation aids, and humanoid robots. The silver economy provides careers to the young and the end-output eases quality of life for the elderly—a win-win solution.
India has taken some steps in this direction: the government’s Senior-care Ageing Growth Engine (SAGE) scheme, launched by the Department of Social Justice and Empowerment, supports startups focused on developing products for senior citizens. Given that Niti Aayog estimates the size of the silver economy to be over ₹73,000 crore, clearly, there is potential to encourage more entrepreneurship and innovation in this sector.
India’s demographic reset calls for a shift in thought and design of policy. Specifically, policies for each age group must align with the overall goal of achieving a balanced population pyramid. A fertility policy that enables families to have the number of children they desire, an ageing policy that allows older adults to live with health and purpose, and a workforce policy that supports care responsibilities can reinforce one another. Together, these three tracks can ensure that each generation is supported without placing an undue economic or social burden on the other.
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- India’s estimated median age. The country has close to a billion people of working age (15 to 64 years) today.
- Current population share of Indians aged 60 and above. The percentage is projected to double by 2050.
- Number of years Indians can expect to live with full health. Actual life expectancy is 73 years, per the WHO.