ICICI Life Insurance shares: Despite 34% slump in 2026, Religare sees 42% upside post Q2 results | Here's why
Shares of ICICI Life Insurance Ltd have declined 34% so far in 2026, but Religare Broking sees significant recovery potential following the insurer’s September-quarter results. The brokerage has reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating with a target price of ₹650, implying a 42.6% upside from the closing price of ₹456 on 14 October.
In its assessment, Religare highlighted the company’s leadership transition, distribution strategy and operating efficiency as key factors supporting its growth outlook. The appointment of Siddharth Mishra as Managing Director and CEO, alongside the company’s rebranding as ICICI Life Insurance Ltd, is expected to ensure strategic continuity, with a continued focus on customer-centricity, deeper penetration of micro-markets and proprietary distribution channels.
The brokerage also views the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India’s (IRDAI) consultation paper on distribution economics constructively. It believes enhanced renewal commission allowances could better align the interests of distributors, policyholders and insurers, while encouraging better underwriting quality and policy persistency. Religare expects the company’s lean cost structure to help cushion the impact of potential changes in industry-wide distribution economics.
However, the brokerage anticipates near-term softness in market-linked savings products and a normalisation in retail protection growth following four quarters of strong expansion after the goods and services tax (GST) changes.
Religare estimates ICICI Life Insurance’s annualised premium equivalent (APE), value of new business (VNB) and embedded value (EV) to grow at compound annual growth rates of 15.3%, 19.2% and 11.9%, respectively, between FY26 and FY28. The ₹650 target price is based on 1.4 times the estimated price-to-embedded-value multiple for the first half of FY28.
ICICI Life Insurance reported a 25% year-on-year increase in profit after tax (PAT) to ₹374.22 crore for the September quarter of FY27, compared with ₹299.26 crore in the corresponding period last year. The growth was supported by higher premium income.
Net premium income rose 16.5% year-on-year to ₹13,804 crore in the July–September quarter, from ₹11,843 crore a year earlier. However, total income declined to ₹11,742 crore from ₹12,015 crore in the year-ago quarter.
The insurer’s solvency ratio stood at 229.9% as of 30 September, while assets under management (AUM) amounted to ₹3.29 lakh crore.
Religare Broking said ICICI Life Insurance Ltd delivered steady performance in Q2FY27, with annualised premium equivalent (APE) rising 15.6% year-on-year (YoY) to ₹2,799 crore. For the first half of FY27, APE grew 15.1% YoY to ₹4,935 crore.
The brokerage highlighted protection products as a key growth driver. Total protection APE increased 33.4% YoY to ₹559 crore in Q2, accounting for 20% of overall APE. Retail protection APE rose 36.5% to ₹232 crore during the quarter. For H1FY27, retail protection surged 47.2% YoY to ₹455 crore, while retail new business sum assured climbed 34.9% to ₹2.32 lakh crore. The company’s market share by sum assured improved to 11.5% from 10.8% in H1FY26.
Annuity business also recorded strong growth, with APE rising 64.7% YoY to ₹191 crore in Q2 and 50% to ₹324 crore in H1FY27. Group funds grew 50.9% YoY to ₹249 crore during the quarter.
However, Religare noted that management expects retail protection growth to moderate in the second half of FY27 as the business faces a higher base following strong growth after the GST reforms.
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HomeMarketsStock MarketsICICI Life Insurance shares: Despite 34% slump in 2026, Religare sees 42% upside post Q2 results | Here's why
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