iPhone sales slump up to 30%: Is Apple's premium pricing strategy losing its shine this Diwali?

Apple’s iPhone sales have fallen by up to 30% around Dussehra, with higher prices, limited festive discounts and longer replacement cycles weighing on demand in India. The slowdown raises questions about the company’s growth momentum in the world’s second-largest smartphone market, despite the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro series and the new iPhone Duo.

iPhone shipments in India are expected to decline by double digits this year from a record 14.3 million units in 2025, with the second half likely to drive the contraction, retailers and analysts told Moneycontrol.

“Retailer feedback points to softer sell-through, which is consistent with the price increases and the lack of festive offers. We expect festive demand across the market to be subdued this year,” said Upasana Joshi, an analyst at International Data Corporation (IDC).

Price increases across older models and the iPhone 18 Pro series are making consumers more cautious, according to Sanyam Chaurasia, an analyst at Omdia. Older iPhones continue to perform well, extending replacement cycles, while selective model shortages have added to the pressure.

The absence of a new base iPhone 18 launch in September has also affected festive momentum.

“With the base iPhone 18 expected in early 2027, some demand could shift from Q4 into Q1,” Chaurasia said.

Counterpoint Research analyst Shubham Nimkar said higher prices were narrowing Apple’s addressable customer base, prompting consumers to delay purchases.

Retailers said demand for older models, including the iPhone 15, 16 and 17 series, had weakened following price increases and the withdrawal of some financing and discount schemes. Retailers and distributors had stocked up ahead of the festive season, anticipating stronger sales, but slower sell-through has left excess inventory in distribution channels.

Currency fluctuations and import challenges have added to the pressure, with some traders holding back sales to avoid losses on inventory purchased at unfavourable exchange rates.

However, a later Diwali has shifted some festive buying into October, making it too early to assess the season’s overall performance. Financing schemes could support purchases, while the iPhone 18 Pro series and Duo are expected to attract early adopters.

Apple commanded a 27% share of India’s smartphone market by value in the June quarter, according to IDC, underlining its strength in the premium segment.

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However, retailers said the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max were facing supply shortages. The All India Mobile Retailers Association (AIMRA) said only 6,000-7,000 saleable iPhone Duo units were initially supplied, despite substantial launch-day interest.

The Duo starts at ₹2,99,900 in India, compared with $1,999 before taxes in the US. Retailers said the price differential could encourage parallel imports.

AIMRA also alleged that distributors were forcing retailers to buy older iPhone models to secure allocations of newly launched devices, calling on Apple India to conduct mystery audits.

Globally, some customers have reported cracking of the Duo’s inner screen. Apple has acknowledged a problem affecting a small number of units and advised customers to contact AppleCare for replacements. Retailers said no such issues had been reported in India so far, though limited availability makes it too early to draw conclusions.

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