JPMorgan projects Bitcoin to outperform US stocks and gold over next decade

JPMorgan included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market outlook for the first time but warned that volatility and unstable correlations limit its role in investment portfolios.

JPMorgan Asset Management projects Bitcoin (BTC) will outperform stocks and gold over the next decade, but cautions that its volatility makes it unsuitable for diversifying portfolios for now.

On Monday, JPMorgan published its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, projecting a 10% annualized return for Bitcoin, compared with 7.5% for large-cap US stocks and 5.5% for gold.

The projections are part of JPMorgan’s annual outlook covering more than 200 assets to help investors plan their portfolios.

“At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations,” the report said. “We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”

JPMorgan projects double-digit Bitcoin gains or losses

JPMorgan’s bull case puts Bitcoin’s annualized return at 16.6%, while its bear case projects an annualized loss of 11.2%. The calculations considered BTC supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold and network adoption.

Related: JPMorgan takes JPM Coin to Ethereum for institutional clients

Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan welcomed Bitcoin’s inclusion in the report.

“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade,” he wrote on X.

Hougan’s firm has published a more bullish forecast. In August 2025, Bitwise projected Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.

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