Meesho shares fall 3% even as Q2 loss narrows to Rs 132 cr. Why Jefferies raised target price but Nomura remains cautious

ETMarkets.com

Jefferies maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Meesho shares.

Meesho’s revenue from operations meanwhile increased more than 34% year-on-year to Rs 4,132 crore in the second quarter of FY27, from Rs 3,074 crore in Q2 FY26. Its total expenses increased around 24% YoY to Rs 4,382 crore during the quarter under review, from Rs 3,540 crore in the year-ago period. The shares of the company fell to Rs 222 apiece on Thursday morning.

Meesho's net loss, however, remained broadly flat on a sequential basis, compared to Rs 133 crore in the April-June quarter of FY27. Revenue from operations rose 11.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 4,131.58 crore from Rs 3,712.81 crore. EBITDA loss stood at Rs 229 crore, compared with Rs 225 crore in the previous quarter.

Also Read | Meesho Q2 Results: Loss narrows to Rs 132 crore YoY, revenue rises 34%

Jefferies on Meesho share price

Jefferies maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the shares of Meesho but increased its target price to Rs 285 apiece from Rs 240 apiece. The latest target price implies 27% upside potential from the stock’s previous closing price.

The international brokerage noted that the company’s net merchandise value (NMV), which measures the cumulative checkout value of successfully delivered orders to consumers, grew 23% YoY, or more than 30% on a festive-adjusted basis, signalling a blockbuster third quarter. CM hit a multi-quarter high on logistics gains (faster deliveries, lower RTOs and rising density), while core losses narrowed sharply in absolute and percentage terms.

Meesho’s management remains confident of a 25% NMV CAGR through FY31, with steady margin improvement. However, the focus remains unapologetically on growth, with absolute clarity on offering value rather than rushing monetisation, Jefferies noted.

“In our base scenario, we forecast Meesho's NMV to grow at a 25% CAGR over FY26-30 and revenue to grow at 28% CAGR. We value Meesho at 1.6x Dec-28e NMV,” Jefferies said. In its bullish upside scenario, it sees Meesho shares jumping to Rs 320, delivering 43% upside. However, in its bearish scenario, Jefferies sees Meesho shares falling 28% to Rs 160 apiece.

Nomura on Meesho share price

Nomura maintained its 'Reduce' call on the shares of Meesho with a target price of Rs 167 apiece, implying 27% downside potential. The international brokerage noted that the company posted 23% YoY growth in NMV, lower than its estimate of 31%, which the management attributed to the delayed festive season in FY27.

A positive surprise was 140 bps QoQ improvement in the contribution margin (CM) to 6% (vs Nomura’s estimate of 4.8%) though adjusted EBITDA margin (as % of NMV) was only up 20 bps QoQ to -1% (our estimate: -0.9%). The international brokerage kept its earnings estimates mostly unchanged.

Also Read | Meesho Q2 loss narrows; Info Edge names Sanjeev Bikhchandani CEO

Motilal Oswal on Meesho share price

Motilal Oswal Financial Services maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the shares of Meesho but increased its target price to Rs 265 apiece. This implies a 16% upside potential from the stock’s previous closing price.

The company’s NMV grew 23% YoY in Q2 FY27, adversely impacted by the shift in festive sales to Q3 FY27 (vs Q2 FY26). Adjusted for the festive shift, NMV growth stood at 33% (vs 34% in Q1). Demand during festive sales has been ahead of expectation, though high crude prices are leading to supply chain disruptions for sellers, it said.

The domestic brokerage raised its CM assumptions by 10-25 bps over FY27-29, driven by faster-than-expected recovery in logistics spreads, resulting in upgrades to FY28 and 29 marketplace adjusted EBITDA. “We model a 25% NMV CAGR over FY26-31, driven by ATU additions and rising platform adoption. Higher ad monetization and normalizing logistics spread should help drive CM to 7.8% by FY31 (vs. 6% in 2Q) and operating leverage should enable break-even in FY28, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 4% (vs. -1% in 2Q),” it added.

Meesho share price

Meesho shares have gained more than 3% in a week and 1.5% in a month. The stock is overall up 25% in 2026 so far.

The company has a market capitalisation of more than Rs 1.05 lakh crore.