Nifty 50 target: Index in sweet spot? 28,000 soon? HSBC, Citi and Bernstein raise targets after sharp 13.5% recovery
A Ksheerasagar
The Indian stock market continued its bullish run, with both frontline indices surging nearly 1% in Wednesday's trade, hitting an 8-month high and extending last week's phenomenal rally.
The Nifty 50 has now recovered around 13.5% from its war-induced lows, while its year-to-date losses have narrowed to just 3.35% after previously slipping into double-digit declines.
Although the Indian market's performance was relatively subdued compared with its Asian peers, most of which were trading with stronger gains, domestic equities continued to build on their recent recovery, supported by improving investor confidence and renewed buying interest.
The recovery has largely been supported by the return of overseas investors, as India becomes an increasingly attractive investment destination following the global AI-led sell-off.
Additionally, the decline in crude oil prices has helped ease inflationary pressures and improved the outlook for India's macroeconomic fundamentals. FPIs have pumped ₹53,739 crore into domestic stocks in November so far, according to NSDL data.
India’s relatively limited exposure to the AI trade had made its stocks among Asia’s worst performers. However, as the once high-flying trade begins to unravel, that weakness has quickly turned into a blessing.
The recent losses have also made Indian stocks more attractive, while better-than-expected corporate performance has helped support valuation multiples. This has given investors an opportunity to return to Dalal Street after largely overlooking the market for nearly two years in pursuit of AI-linked stocks.
The fallout in AI-linked stocks and the decline in crude oil prices have also caught the attention of global brokerages, prompting them to raise their targets for the Nifty 50.
Citi raised its valuation multiple for Indian equities to 18 times forward earnings from 17 times, arguing that a favourable combination of resilient earnings growth, softer crude oil prices, and a rotation away from crowded AI trades could sustain the market's momentum.
The brokerage raised its Nifty 50 target to 28,000 from 26,000 earlier, implying an upside of around 12% from current levels. It expects Indian corporate earnings to grow at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15-16% over FY26-FY28.
HSBC Holdings Plc also upgraded Indian equities to overweight from neutral, citing resilient earnings and more reasonable valuations. Citigroup Inc. raised its 12-month target for the NSE Nifty 50 Index by nearly 8% to 28,000, pointing to improving earnings growth and lower oil prices.
The brokerage said resilient earnings, strong bank credit growth, and policy measures to support the Indian rupee have made the market "more compelling" following its underperformance relative to emerging market peers this year.
Bernstein has also raised its Nifty 50 target to 26,100 from 25,000 earlier, citing improving market sentiment and easing geopolitical concerns, according to Moneycontrol. The brokerage has maintained its near-term 'Trading Buy' rating on Indian equities while retaining a 'Neutral' stance over a 12-month horizon.
A Ksheerasagar
Ksheera Sagar has been working as a Market Research Analyst at LiveMint for the past four years, covering stocks, commodities, and broader financial markets. In this role, he closely tracks daily market movements, corporate earnings, sector trends, and macroeconomic developments. <br><br> He has over a decade of experience in the financial services industry and has previously worked with multiple organisations, including global investment bank J.P. Morgan, bringing strong research experience into the newsroom. <br><br> During his career, he has gained extensive exposure to equity research, market analysis, and financial data interpretation, strengthening his expertise across asset classes and market cycles. <br><br> He is known for his data-driven analysis and crisp, listicle-style market stories that break down complex financial developments across key markets for a wide audience. His strong research skills enable him to write detailed and insightful stories on stocks and sectors, focusing on the underlying factors driving market movements. <br><br> His work combines quantitative insights with clear storytelling, presenting financial developments in a clear and structured manner. Moreover, he enjoys writing multibagger and listicle-style copies. Outside of work, Ksheera enjoys playing the piano and exploring new places. He has a keen interest in travel, music, and continuously learning about global markets and economic trends.
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