Nifty risks 21,500, HDFC Bank eyes ₹640, IT rally shows fatigue: Anand James

While 22070 appear as a fair support, unless we get back above 22800 early next week, expect bear grip to tighten, and we would have to deal with a fresh downside break with 21500 as the first objective.

Edited excerpts from a chat:

Nifty closed at 22,600 levels after touching 22,372. Is the 22,200–22,000 zone still a credible support base, or has the market entered a fresh leg of the downtrend?

Though Nifty has not fallen below recent low, VIX, an indicator of volatility has risen above levels seen when Nifty hit 22179 levels early October. This suggests that traders anxious about further downside. Supporting this construct is the fact that the small and mid caps have already broken below recent lows with Nifty staying buoyant largely due to a few index heavy weights, primarily IT. While 22070 appear as a fair support, unless we get back above 22800 early next week, expect bear grip to tighten, and we would have to deal with a fresh downside break with 21500 as the first objective.

Bank Nifty has underperformed Nifty. Is the weakness in private banks, particularly HDFC Bank, now becoming a broader sector risk, or do the charts suggest accumulation near current levels?

Bank Nifty’s underperformance is increasingly pointing to a broader sector risk rather than a clear accumulation phase.The index remains technically vulnerable after failing to sustain its recent rebound, with the chart suggesting scope for a retest of the 53,700 swing low. MACD is also close to a potential bearish signal, reinforcing the cautious setup.

However, the weakness is not uniform. Within private banks, HDFC Bank, Axis Bank and IndusInd Bankappear better positioned for a reversal, suggesting selective accumulation may be emerging. In contrast, ICICI Bank and Federal Bank remain vulnerable. The PSU banking side looks weaker, with SBI, Canara Bank, Union Bank and Bank of Baroda appearing to have largely completed their rebound and potentially preparing for another downside leg.

Derivatives reinforce this cautious-to-mildly bearish view. Heavy call short buildup in Bank Nifty, alongside substantial ITM put short covering, points to restricted upside and increased downside caution among put writers. Overall, private banks appear relatively better placed than PSU banks, but Bank Nifty would need to decisively reverse its current weak structure before signalling broader accumulation.

HDFC Bank is nearly 31% below its 52-week high and has faced fresh news-flow pressure. What price level would invalidate the long-term bullish structure, and where could a technical bottom emerge?

Having slipped below the rising trendline that has held the trend since bouncing off the covid lows in 2020, the stock is clearly come off the long term bullish structure. This is confirmed the multitude of downside continuation patterns that has ensured that all upswing attempts find rejection trades. At the moment the stock is riding a sideways bias within the 750-680 band. Break of this band has the potential to initiate a fresh directional move, but until the default trend appears down, with next major support seen in the 640 vicinity.

IT stocks are rebounding even as US technology shares and Asian tech markets weaken. Is the Nifty IT rally a genuine sector rotation or merely a relief rally after prolonged underperformance?

The rebound in Nifty IT looks more like a selective recovery after prolonged underperformance than a confirmed sector-wide rotation. The index has staged a sharp recovery since the beginning of October and has managed to close above the key horizontal resistance around 31,990, which is constructive. However, the rally is beginning to show signs of exhaustion.

Momentum remains positive, but the MACD histogram is losing strength, suggesting that the pace of the recovery is fading. Friday’s bearish engulfing candle near the breakout zone adds to the risk of near-term profit booking. The move also appears stretched at the stock level. Major constituents such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra are showing signs of exhaustion, with the group’s average RSI above 70 and weak or reversal candles emerging on Friday.

Derivatives paint a similar picture. Positioning is mixed but improving, with pockets of short covering and fresh bullish interest, but the recovery is not broad-based. Reduced bearish conviction provides some support, although signs of exhaustion suggest upside could become more difficult in the immediate term.

Overall, the evidence currently favours a relief-led, selective recovery rather than a durable sector rotation. Some profit booking or consolidation appears likely before the next meaningful upside leg can develop.

Swiggy fell sharply after its quarterly results. Is the chart showing a breakdown in investor risk appetite, and is there any technical support zone worth watching in Swiggy?

Indeed, the risk appetite is quite low given the sustained downtrend this year, which hastened post late September. Friday’s drop appear alarming, which also accompanied by unusually high volumes. Looking for bargain hunting at this stage would be risky, but we would be keen on looking for reversal signs on approach to 160, the lower extremity of the parallel trendline.

Give us your top ideas of the week ahead.

CGCL (LTP: 236)

View: Buy

Target: 255

SL: 223

Capri Global Capital is showing early signs of a rebound after approaching the lower boundary of its rising weekly channel, an area that has previously attracted buying interest. The stock has formed a Pin Bar/Doji near support, backed by strong volumes, indicating rejection of lower levels and improving demand.

Price is also testing the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting the recent correction may be stretched and increasing the scope for a near-term recovery. The volume-backed reversal candle adds conviction to the setup, although momentum remains subdued following the recent decline. Holding above the 223-230 support zone could help CGCL regain momentum and initiate a recovery towards 255 over the next few weeks. A break below 223 would weaken the reversal setup.

ROLEXRINGS (LTP: 155)

View: Buy

Target: 167

SL: 149

Rolex Rings has been on a recovery mode since November 2025 and has been making higher highs and higher lows since then. The stock is showing early signs of a rebound after finding support around a key confluence zone formed by the 200-DMA and 100-WMA. The recent long-legged Doji candle indicates rejection of lower levels and suggests that selling pressure is losing momentum.

The recovery from the oversold region further supports the possibility of a near-term reversal, with buyers gradually returning at lower levels. Holding above the long-term averages would strengthen the recovery setup and could pave the way for a move towards 167 over the next few weeks. The bullish view remains valid as long as the stock sustains above 149.