Oil Price Today (October 13): Crude oil falls to $105 as traders assess Russian supply, Mideast attacks. What’s next?

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ANI

US President Donald Trump said Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets. His administration also temporarily eased US sanctions on Russian fuel, which were imposed to deprive Moscow of revenue for its war on Ukraine.

Crude oil price on October 13

Brent crude futures fell 61 cents, or 1.05%, to $105 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 92 cents, or 1.05%, to $93 a barrel. Brent settled at $106.65 a barrel on Monday, its highest level since September 15. Oil prices have surged more than 70% this year as the US war on Iran rattled global energy markets.

The additional supplies could ease tightness in global fuel markets and reduce some of the supply concerns that have supported crude prices in recent weeks. However, lawmakers from both parties in the US said Trump's agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to violate US law barring imports of Russian energy until Moscow ends its aggression against Ukraine.

Risks to Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping routes remained in focus after Iran-aligned Houthis struck Riyadh's international airport over the weekend, while tanker attacks were reported near the Strait of Hormuz. The incidents threatened to disrupt the recovery in Middle East supplies recorded in September and heightened concerns about further interruptions along one of the world's most important energy transit routes.

Ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation said shipping and insurance costs had surged to unprecedented levels, exceeding one-third of the commodity's value and hindering the efficient movement of crude oil and petroleum products.

What are experts saying?

Uncertainty over how the conflict will end remains a key concern for markets. JPMorgan analysts said they did not know how to model the eventual outcome, noting that the bank had initially assumed the US administration would avoid crossing certain economic thresholds when the conflict began. Seven months into the war, many of those thresholds had been crossed, while a clear exit strategy remained absent.

The growing threat of further supply disruptions has also raised the prospect of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks demonstrated how disruptions to shipping could spread and intensify.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could climb to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate. If exports return to normal, the bank expects prices to move back towards $80 a barrel.

Struyven said risks to shipping had become a major driver of oil prices. Goldman Sachs sees meaningful upside potential for crude and expects natural gas and refined product prices to rise as well. Struyven added that supply shocks affecting gas and fuels were larger than those in the crude oil market.