Oil Price Today (October 20): Crude oil nears $110 again as fresh attacks outweigh easing Russian sanctions. What are experts saying?

Agencies

Brent crude futures gained 21 cents, or 0.20, to $109.76 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for November delivery, which expire on Tuesday, rose 0.11% to $104 a barrel. Brent had climbed to $110.70 a barrel in the previous session, its highest level since May 20.

US President Donald Trump issued an executive order on Friday night waiving key Russia-related sanctions and tariffs, including duties on Russian goods and penalties for countries buying its oil and gas. However, Trump said on Saturday that he had yet to make a final decision on the matter. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said officials wanted more time to assess the situation.

Russia's crude oil production rose by 65,000 barrels per day in September to 8.43 million barrels per day, although output remained around 870,000 barrels per day below its level a year earlier, the International Energy Agency said last week.

Attacks continue

Meanwhile, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday that they had launched several attacks on Saudi energy, airport and military targets. These included an Aramco site in Yanbu, the Shaybah oilfield, King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and Abha airport. Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm the claims, and Reuters could not independently verify them.

Separately, a Houthi attack on a government security forces training camp in Yemen's Shabwa province on Monday killed 58 people and injured more than 200, according to reports. The renewed attacks added to concerns over regional stability and the risk of disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East, keeping oil prices above $100 a barrel.

In the US, crude oil inventories were expected to have declined last week, along with stocks of refined petroleum products, according to a preliminary Reuters poll released on Monday.

Where are prices headed?

Uncertainty remains over the course of the conflict. JPMorgan analysts said the war's eventual trajectory was difficult to model. At the beginning of the conflict, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. Seven months later, many of those thresholds had been crossed, while a clear exit strategy remained elusive.

The threat of further supply disruptions has also reinforced expectations of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks highlighted how shipping disruptions could spread and intensify.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could climb to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate. However, a return to normal export levels could push prices down towards $80 a barrel. Struyven said risks to shipping had become a key driver of oil prices, adding that the bank saw significant upside potential for crude. Goldman Sachs also expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to rise, with supply shocks having a greater impact on gas and refined products than on crude oil.