Oil Price Today (October 23): Crude oil ticks over $114, jumps nearly 8% this week as energy attacks intensify. What are experts saying?

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Brent crude futures rose 50 cents, or 0.45%, to $114.02 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 40 cents, or 0.42%, to $100. WTI was on track to end a two-week winning streak with a weekly loss. Brent, which settled at its highest level since May 4 on Thursday, was set to gain for a third consecutive week.

Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran, on the Gulf near Bahrain, on Thursday as fighting intensified between the world's largest crude exporter and Yemen-based Houthis. Clashes between the Iran-aligned Houthis and a Saudi-led coalition supporting Yemen's internationally recognised government have continued as the group advanced towards Bab el-Mandeb, a shipping chokepoint at the entrance to the Red Sea.

Separately, Russia said on Wednesday it was ready to resume US-mediated talks with Ukraine next month, following President Vladimir Putin's meeting with US envoy Steve Witkoff in St Petersburg. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he hoped negotiations, which would be the first since February, would take place in early November.

Russia was the world's third-largest crude oil producer in 2025, behind the US and Saudi Arabia, according to US energy data. Sanctions imposed to keep Russian energy out of global markets following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have pushed up oil prices.

More attacks?

The New York Times reported that the US and Israeli militaries have drawn up specific plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the American midterm elections, citing US officials and others briefed on the discussions.

Preparations for a short but intensive operation are progressing, with both militaries stepping up exercises and flying aircraft over Iraq to practise strike manoeuvres. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel this week to discuss fresh strikes, according to US officials.

Potential targets include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities, and missile and drone arsenal. Some officials believe another major round of attacks could push Iran's economy over the brink and compel Tehran to make diplomatic concessions after nearly eight months of conflict.

Where are prices headed?

Uncertainty over how the conflict will unfold continues to cloud the outlook for oil prices. JPMorgan analysts said the war's eventual trajectory remained difficult to model. At the outset of the conflict, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. Seven months later, many of those thresholds had been crossed, while a clear exit strategy remained elusive.

The risk of further supply disruptions has also strengthened expectations of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had underscored how shipping disruptions could spread and intensify.

Goldman Sachs has outlined a scenario in which oil prices could rise to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate. Conversely, a return to normal export levels could bring prices down towards $80 a barrel. Struyven said shipping risks had become a key factor influencing oil prices, adding that the bank saw significant upside potential for crude. Goldman Sachs also expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to increase, with supply shocks having a greater impact on gas and refined products than on crude oil.