Oil Price Today (October 30): Crude oil jumps to $118 as Trump weighs fresh attacks after midterm. What are experts saying?
ETMarkets.comBrent Crude Oil Price : Brent crude rose to $118 or 2.5% a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 2.30% to $104 a barrel.
Crude oil price on October 30
Brent crude rose to $118 or 2.5% a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 2.30% to $104 a barrel. Brent crude has risen 12% in October, reaching a six-month high. Although oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered, low inventories and tight supplies of refined products have continued to support prices.The gains followed a Wall Street Journal report that a senior US military commander had briefed US President Donald Trump on potential military options on Thursday. Trump has repeatedly indicated that he could resume airstrikes on Tehran after next week's midterm elections.
Security risks in the Strait of Hormuz came back into focus after an unidentified projectile hit a tanker on Thursday as it completed its outbound passage through the waterway, according to the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO). The incident highlighted the continuing threat to shipping, despite producers having resumed cargo movements through the strait.
Attacks on the rise
Market uncertainty has also been fuelled by the risk of further Houthi attacks and the possibility of US military action against Iran after the elections. The Saudi-led coalition fighting Yemen's Houthis said it had intercepted and destroyed a ballistic missile fired by the group towards Saudi Arabia's eastern region early on Thursday. Fighting between the two sides has continued, with little indication of a de-escalation.Yemeni government forces said the Houthis attacked Aden airport on Wednesday. The incident came a day after the group claimed responsibility for a missile strike targeting Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery at Ras Tanura. These developments signal an escalation in attacks on Saudi Arabia, the world's second-largest crude producer after the United States. Saudi authorities had not immediately confirmed the reported attack on the refinery, which has a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day.
Where are prices headed?
The lack of clarity over how the conflict will unfold continues to cloud the outlook for oil markets. JPMorgan analysts said it remained difficult to assess the war's trajectory. At the beginning of the conflict, the bank had expected the US administration to avoid crossing certain economic thresholds. However, seven months later, several of those limits had been breached, while there was still no clear strategy to bring the conflict to an end.The possibility of further supply disruptions has strengthened expectations of higher oil prices. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said recent attacks had demonstrated how shipping disruptions could spread and intensify. Goldman Sachs has projected that oil prices could rise to $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East escalate. In contrast, prices could fall towards $80 a barrel if exports return to normal levels.
Struyven said risks to shipping had emerged as a major driver of oil prices, adding that the bank saw considerable upside potential for crude. Goldman Sachs also expects natural gas and refined fuel prices to increase, noting that supply disruptions tend to have a greater impact on gas and refined products than on crude oil.