ONGC shares: Venezuela oil project hopes lift focus after Q2 results | Should you buy? Key levels to watch

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) shares will remain in focus after the company's finance head, Anupam Agarwal, said it expects to secure operatorship rights for two Venezuelan oil projects within the next three to six months. The company is in advanced discussions with the Venezuelan and US authorities, Agarwal said during an analyst call on Friday, according to a Reuters report.

The development comes ahead of the special one-hour Diwali Muhurat Trading session on Sunday, 8 November, marking the beginning of the new Hindu financial year, Samvat 2083. Indian stock exchanges will remain open for the special session from 2:20 pm to 3:30 pm, despite Sunday being a regular market holiday.

According to the Reuters report, ONGC Videsh, the overseas investment arm of ONGC, has more than $500 million in pending dividends from its stakes in two Venezuelan projects — the San Cristobal oilfield and the Carabobo 1 field.

Agarwal said the pending dividends would be adjusted once the new operatorship agreements are finalised. Under the proposed arrangement, ONGC would move beyond its existing role as an investor to operate the projects and sell their output.

The arrangement also includes a provision that could allow ONGC to acquire stakes in additional Venezuelan oilfields, he said.

Agarwal said ONGC expects to secure full operatorship of the San Cristobal project, in which it holds a 40% stake, while Venezuelan state-owned oil company PDVSA owns the remaining interest. In the Carabobo project, ONGC would take up joint operatorship alongside other investors.

ONGC and other Indian companies collectively hold an 18% stake in the Carabobo project, while Spain's Repsol owns an 11% interest.

Agarwal also said production from Russia's Sakhalin-1 project, in which ONGC holds a 20% stake, averaged around 183,000 barrels per day during April–September. This was broadly in line with production levels recorded before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

State-owned ONGC reported a 57.3% year-on-year increase in standalone net profit to ₹15,488.64 crore in the September quarter of FY27, driven by higher crude oil and natural gas realisations despite a decline in production.

The country's largest oil and gas producer had posted a standalone net profit of ₹9,847.97 crore in the corresponding quarter last year, according to a company statement.

ONGC also reported its highest-ever first-half standalone net profit of ₹32,522 crore for April–September FY27, marking an 82% increase from ₹17,872 crore in the same period last year.

The first-half profit was almost on a par with the ₹32,894.02 crore net profit the company earned during the entire FY26 financial year (April 2025–March 2026).

Nuvama Institutional Equities maintained a cautious stance on ONGC's production outlook, citing the company's failure to meet its production guidance in each of the past eight years. The brokerage noted that ONGC's production has consistently declined at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.4%, while its 1P reserves have fallen at a CAGR of 2.7% over the past five years.

Nuvama has raised its FY27 and FY28 EBITDAX estimates by 12% and 8%, respectively, factoring in higher near-term Brent crude price assumptions, while lowering its production growth estimates. Following the mark-to-market (MTM) adjustment of investments, the brokerage marginally raised its target price to ₹224 from ₹223, while retaining its 'REDUCE' rating on the stock.

ONGC shares ended 0.83% at ₹232 apiece on the BSE on Friday, 6 November. Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at My Advisor Alpha, said ONGC has remained under pressure since the beginning of May, declining from around ₹310 to the current levels of ₹230. During this downtrend, every bounce towards the 89-day exponential moving average (EMA) has attracted selling pressure.

However, the stock has been forming a base over the past month, with resistance placed at ₹240. A sustained move above this level could trigger a strong rally towards ₹248–255. On the downside, ₹225 remains a crucial support zone, Bhosale said.

Dhanya Nagasundaram works as a Content Producer at LiveMint, specializing in news related to financial markets, stocks, and business. With over eight years of experience in journalism and content creation, she has honed her skills in data-driven reporting and market analysis. Her focus is on monitoring stock trends, initial public offerings (IPOs), corporate news, policy shifts, and larger economic trends that affect investors and market players. <br><br> At LiveMint, Dhanya consistently writes and produces articles that make complex financial topics accessible to readers. She keeps a close eye on equity markets, commodities, and macroeconomic indicators, assisting audiences in comprehending how global and domestic events influence investment perspectives. Her stories frequently underscore emerging trends within sectors, the IPO market, company earnings results, and market strategies pertinent to both retail and institutional investors. <br><br> Before her tenure at LiveMint, Dhanya accumulated a wealth of professional experience at various companies, including MintGenie, Informist, Cogenics, Chary Publications, KPMG, and the Royal Bank of Scotland. These positions allowed her to establish a solid foundation in financial research, reporting, and content creation. <br><br> Throughout her career, she has explored numerous subjects such as trading strategies, commodities, IPOs, wealth generation, corporate profits, and macroeconomic indicators. Her background in both financial journalism and corporate settings has given her the ability to tackle stories with analytical rigor while ensuring clarity for her audience. Through her contributions, Dhanya strives to deliver insightful, trustworthy, and investor-centric financial content.

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