Raja Venkatraman recommends three stocks for 21 October

With geopolitical developments and commodity prices remaining unpredictable, the near-term market outlook remains cautious. Traders expect further consolidation before a clear recovery can take shape.

Three stocks to trade, recommended by NeoTrader’s Raja Venkatraman:

KARURVYSYA (Cmp ₹345)

Buy above ₹370, stop ₹353, target ₹405 (Multiday)

Why it’s recommended: Karur Vysya Bank (KVB) is a leading private-sector bank with a strong presence across Retail, Agriculture, and MSME (RAM) segments. After consolidating in a rounding pattern since July 2026, the stock has broken out sharply above its value area support near ₹353. Taking cues from steady Q2 earnings in the private banking space, price action is getting a boost from Tenkan-sen (TS) and Kijun-sen (KS) support levels. Developing buying volume and RSI support signal further upside potential. Go long.

Key metrics:

P/E Ratio : 12.09,

52-week high: ₹365.85

Volume: 2.67M

Technical analysis: Support at ₹325, resistance at ₹398.

Risk factors: Geographic concentration, MSME and SME exposure and wage inflation & talent premium.

Buy : above ₹345.

Stop loss: ₹330.

Target price: ₹405 (2 Months)

THELEELA (Cmp ₹622.75)

Buy above ₹623, stop ₹593, target ₹690 (Multiday)

Why it’s recommended: Leela Palaces Hotels & Resorts (THELEELA) is India’s largest institutionally owned, pure-play luxury hospitality operator. Following a 12-month consolidation phase after its listing, the stock gained strong upward momentum in June 2026. The recent pullback saw prices find solid support at the Tenkan-sen (TS) and Kijun-sen (KS) Ichimoku bands, where a reversal picked up momentum on Monday. Closing the session with a strong long-bodied bullish candle despite broader market selling signals genuine buying interest. Go long.

Key metrics:

P/E Ratio : 67.09,

52-week high: ₹649.80,

Volume: 891.56K

Technical analysis: Support at ₹400, resistance at ₹640.

Risk factors: Industry cyclicality, high promoter pledge levels, and execution challenges.

Buy : above ₹623.

Stop loss: ₹593.

Target price: ₹690 (2 Months)

HFCL (Cmp ₹268.80)

Buy above ₹270, stop ₹258, target ₹299 (Multiday)

Why it’s recommended: HFCL is a leading Indian technology enterprise specializing in high-end telecommunications equipment, optical fiber, cables, and defense electronics. Daily price charts indicate a steady bullish structure, with strong candlestick formations driving a gradual and consistent upward move. Positive developments in the artificial intelligence and data-center infrastructure space have sparked swift buying momentum, signaling further upside potential. Go long.

Key metrics:

P/E Ratio : 86.69,

52-week high: ₹275.35,

Volume: 15.11M.

Technical analysis: Support at ₹225, resistance at ₹310.

Risk factors: Stretched working capital cycle, fierce pricing competition and promoter pledging.

Buy : above ₹270

Stop loss: ₹258

Target price: ₹299 (2 Months)

Stock market update

On 19 October, Indian equities came under heavy selling pressure, with benchmarks slipping sharply after a muted start to the week. The Sensex fell 876.37 points or 1.17% to close at 73,852.90, while the Nifty dropped 257.20 points or 1.11% to settle at 22,888.95, breaking below the 22,900-mark intraday. Broader markets mirrored the weakness, as both Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices declined around 1% each, underscoring risk aversion across segments.

Sectoral performance was largely negative, with PSU banks the only bright spot, gaining 2.2% on selective buying in SBI and other state-owned lenders. In contrast, FMCG fell 1.2%, IT lost 1.3%, and private banks shed 1.8%. Axis Bank, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Bajaj Finance, Trent, and Infosys were among the biggest Nifty losers, while JSW Steel, Eicher Motors, SBI, L&T, and ONGC managed gains.

Market breadth remained weak, with more than 150 stocks hitting fresh 52-week lows, including Reliance Power, India Cements, Voltas, Britannia Industries, and Max Healthcare. The rupee, however, extended its winning streak for the seventh consecutive session, closing marginally higher at 94.92 per dollar. Overall, the session reflected broad-based selling pressure, with PSU banks offering limited support amid otherwise subdued sentiment.

Outlook for trading

Global cues continue to test the patience of financial markets, keeping traders on edge amid ongoing uncertainty and elevated volatility. Firm crude oil prices remain a persistent headwind, fanning inflationary concerns and weighing on investor sentiment across emerging markets.

At the same time, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East show little sign of abating, as persistent newsflows maintain a high level of caution. Weakness in global equities, paired with fluctuating bond yields and currency swings, has further blurred the outlook, leaving market participants hesitant to commit capital aggressively.

While occasional positive triggers—such as resilient economic data or temporary dips in commodity prices—provide short-lived relief, the broader market setup remains firmly grounded in consolidation and defensive positioning. In this environment, trader discipline and patience are under test, as markets await clearer signals from global central banks and geopolitical developments before establishing a sustained directional move.

This macro pressure is now noticeably spilling over into technical charts, pulling market trends lower. For the second consecutive week, Nifty’s weekly chart shows a close below the Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen Ichimoku bands—levels that had previously held prices in a range. The persistent downside pressure is beginning to leave a mark: higher-timeframe charts clearly indicate that the underlying trend remains under strain, while the failure to reclaim the 23,500 level redefines it as a crucial weekly resistance hurdle.

To gain a clearer perspective on how to navigate current market conditions, lower-timeframe charts offer useful context. Volatility is bound to persist, and the absence of a meaningful rebound from lower-channel support—a key technical area tracked over recent weeks—suggests that price action will stay choppy.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on Nifty's daily chart further reinforces this underlying weakness, signaling that a cautious, measured approach is necessary when participating in the market. The upper barrier near 23,500 remains a major obstacle; unless it is decisively breached on the upside, traders should adopt a "sell on rallies, buy on deep dips" framework. The only silver lining from Friday’s sharp late recovery was the exit of short-term weekly positions from traders unwilling to carry weekend risk.

Raja Venkatraman is co-founder, NeoTrader. His Sebi-registered research analyst registration no. is INH000016223.

Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing. Registration granted by Sebi and certification from NISM in no way guarantees performance of the intermediary or provide any assurance of returns to investors.