Reliance shares see volume breakout: Is a trend reversal around the corner? Here’s what RIL stock history shows
Reliance Industries shares witnessed an exceptional surge on Monday,2 November, soaring nearly 12% in their strongest single-day performance since April 2020. The sharp upswing boosted the company's market capitalisation by almost ₹2 lakh crore in a single trading session, offering investors a significant festive-season cheer.
Despite this dramatic rebound, Reliance shares continue to trade more than 17% lower so far in 2026, leaving investors wondering whether the latest surge marks the beginning of a sustained recovery or is merely a sharp rebound.
Market experts believe the combination of a strong volume breakout, improving technical indicators, robust quarterly earnings and potential value unlocking from Jio Platforms could support the stock's next move. On Tuesday, 3 November, RIL shares fell over 1% due to profit-booking, and the stock ended 0.55% higher at ₹1,306.20 on the BSE.
The latest rally stands out not just for its magnitude but also for the sharp increase in trading volumes. According to Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research at SAMCO Securities, Reliance has witnessed an extraordinary volume breakout alongside an almost 11.6% single-session surge. The stock has also decisively moved above a prolonged downward-sloping trendline, suggesting that selling pressure could be giving way to fresh buying interest.
Sheth's historical analysis offers an interesting perspective on what could lie ahead. He identified nine previous instances since 2000 when Reliance gained more than 5% in a single session, accompanied by volumes exceeding three times the previous five-day average. All nine instances delivered positive one-year forward returns, with average gains of 55.32%.
However, the stock did not outperform the Nifty 500 on every occasion. It generated positive alpha over the benchmark in seven of the nine instances, with average outperformance of 44.12%, Sheth noted.
The historical instances in the analysis include sharp single-day gains recorded on March 30, 2000 (8%), January 4, 2002 (8.30%), June 20, 2005 (5.04%), August 6, 2012 (5.86%), October 19, 2015 (5.63%), February 22, 2017 (10.96%), August 13, 2019 (9.69%), September 10, 2020 (7.06%) and May 28, 2021 (6.01%). The latest session on November 2, 2026, saw the stock rise 9.37%, according to the data provided.
Sheth believes the current breakout comes at an important juncture, with several fundamental triggers potentially improving the investment outlook. The successful listing of Jio Platforms has unlocked value by allowing the market to separately assess Reliance's digital business. The September-quarter performance has added to the positive momentum, with the company reporting record consolidated EBITDA of ₹62,409 crore, up 23.9% YoY, and record PAT of ₹29,550 crore, up 33.8%.
The oil-to-chemicals (O2C) business delivered a particularly strong performance, with EBITDA rising 67.9%, while Jio's EBITDA grew 16.6%. Sheth said the combination of a technical breakout, exceptional volumes, improving earnings and value unlocking through Jio makes Reliance an interesting stock to watch.
From a technical perspective, Gaurav Arora, Head of Research at SAHI, said Reliance had been forming a base within a rectangle pattern before breaking out decisively above ₹1,225. The simultaneous breakout in price and volume lends strength to the move, while the upward tilt in the exponential moving average (EMA) curve points to improving momentum.
However, Arora cautioned that a minor pullback cannot be ruled out after the sharp rally. In such a scenario, ₹1,250 and ₹1,225 would be the key support levels to watch.
For a confirmed trend reversal, the stock needs to overcome resistance at ₹1,325, which coincides with its previous highs, he said. A decisive move above this level could signal a change in the stock's price structure.
Until then, the current move indicates a strong breakout and improving momentum, but does not yet confirm a complete trend reversal, Arora added.
Dhanya Nagasundaram works as a Content Producer at LiveMint, specializing in news related to financial markets, stocks, and business. With over eight years of experience in journalism and content creation, she has honed her skills in data-driven reporting and market analysis. Her focus is on monitoring stock trends, initial public offerings (IPOs), corporate news, policy shifts, and larger economic trends that affect investors and market players. <br><br> At LiveMint, Dhanya consistently writes and produces articles that make complex financial topics accessible to readers. She keeps a close eye on equity markets, commodities, and macroeconomic indicators, assisting audiences in comprehending how global and domestic events influence investment perspectives. Her stories frequently underscore emerging trends within sectors, the IPO market, company earnings results, and market strategies pertinent to both retail and institutional investors. <br><br> Before her tenure at LiveMint, Dhanya accumulated a wealth of professional experience at various companies, including MintGenie, Informist, Cogenics, Chary Publications, KPMG, and the Royal Bank of Scotland. These positions allowed her to establish a solid foundation in financial research, reporting, and content creation. <br><br> Throughout her career, she has explored numerous subjects such as trading strategies, commodities, IPOs, wealth generation, corporate profits, and macroeconomic indicators. Her background in both financial journalism and corporate settings has given her the ability to tackle stories with analytical rigor while ensuring clarity for her audience. Through her contributions, Dhanya strives to deliver insightful, trustworthy, and investor-centric financial content.
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HomeMarketsStock MarketsReliance shares see volume breakout: Is a trend reversal around the corner? Here’s what RIL stock history shows
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