Sensex Expiry Today Prediction 12 November Thursday: What should be your trading strategy? Check support, resistance
Sensex expiry today: Indian stock market benchmarks extended their winning streak on Thursday, November 12, supported by positive global cues, a revival in foreign institutional investor (FII) inflows and a decline in crude oil prices.
The Sensex rose 239 points to 82,118.45, while the Nifty 50 gained 57 points to 25,331.85.
A stronger rupee, easing crude prices and broad-based buying across sectors further lifted investor sentiment. However, with the market approaching the monthly derivatives expiry, traders will closely monitor key technical levels and positioning in the futures and options (F&O) segment to gauge whether the ongoing recovery can sustain or face another round of profit booking.
Asian equities traded higher as investors largely shrugged off a leadership crisis at Nvidia Corp., which had sent shares of the chipmaker tumbling in after-hours trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.2%, with modest advances in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan offsetting losses in Hong Kong. This followed a 2.3% jump in the Nasdaq 100, putting the US technology benchmark on track for its best weekly performance since May.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) returned as net buyers on November 11, purchasing equities worth ₹12,563 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) extended their selling streak to nine consecutive sessions, recording net sales of ₹8,434 crore.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices declined towards a two-month low amid rising Middle Eastern production and relatively muted hostilities between Iran and the US. Brent crude traded near $92 a barrel after gaining 1.4% on Wednesday, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $86. Although Brent has gained more than 50% this year, prices have reversed sharply in November amid recovering supplies from the Middle East and expectations that the Democrats' victory in the US midterm elections could accelerate efforts to end the conflict with Iran, now in its ninth month.
Commenting on the market rally, V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments Limited, highlighted the changing dynamics of institutional flows as a key driver of the market's recent performance.
"The Nifty rally of 9.55% in seven trading sessions so far in November is being led primarily by the aggressive buying by the FIIs. The tug of war between the FIIs and DIIs till November saw the FIIs on the sell side and DIIs on the buy side. Now the positions have been completely reversed with FIIs turning aggressive buyers and DIIs turning consistent sellers," Vijayakumar said.
What is expiry and why does it matter?
Expiry refers to the last trading day of a derivatives contract, after which the contract ceases to exist and is settled according to the exchange's prescribed settlement mechanism. On expiry day, traders must close, roll over or settle their outstanding positions. As contracts approach expiry, changes in open interest, unwinding of positions and adjustments by traders can trigger sharp movements in the underlying index. This can lead to heightened volatility, particularly around important support and resistance levels. Consequently, traders need to closely monitor price action and derivatives positioning rather than rely solely on the broader market trend.
With the Sensex witnessing a sharp recovery in recent sessions, traders will closely monitor key technical levels and derivatives positioning to assess whether the upward momentum can continue on expiry day. Market participants will also watch for signs of profit booking, particularly as the index approaches immediate resistance.
Sachin Gupta, Vice President – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking, said the Sensex was showing a sideways-to-bullish bias, with the 81,300–81,500 zone emerging as an important support area and 82,400–82,500 acting as immediate resistance.
The broader trading range was placed between 81,300 and 82,500. According to Gupta, a sustained move above 82,500 could trigger further recovery, while holding the immediate support zone would be crucial to preserving the positive near-term outlook.
From a technical perspective, the Sensex formed a doji candle during the first hour of trading, signalling indecision at higher levels. The 82,500 mark attracted considerable profit booking, following which the index declined sharply after slipping below 82,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 81.34, significantly above its RSI-based moving average of 63.91. This indicated strong underlying momentum but also highlighted an overbought market, suggesting that intermittent profit booking could emerge.
In the derivatives segment, the highest put open interest was concentrated at the 81,500 PE strike, making it an important support level. Meanwhile, the 82,000 CE strike recorded the highest call open interest, indicating immediate resistance. The put-call ratio (PCR) stood at 1.21, suggesting relatively positive positioning in the options market.
Overall, Gupta maintained that the recovery remained encouraging, but the Sensex needed to sustain above 82,000 and decisively cross 82,500 to extend its upward momentum. Until then, traders should remain watchful of volatility and profit booking, with the 81,300–81,500 support zone likely to be crucial in determining the index's next move.
Pranati Deva is a seasoned financial journalist with over a decade of experience in high-pressure newsroom environments, currently working as a Senior Sub Editor at LiveMint. Over the years, she has developed a reputation for sharp editorial judgement, a strong grasp of market dynamics, and the ability to translate complex financial developments into clear, engaging stories for a wide audience. <br><br> Her core areas of coverage include stock markets, leading listed companies, currencies, and commodities, with a particular strength in fast-paced, real-time market reporting. She is known for handling breaking market news, earnings-driven stock movements, and macroeconomic developments with speed, accuracy, and context—qualities that are essential in financial journalism. <br><br> Pranati has built a diverse and credible professional track record across some of India’s most respected news organisations, including MintGenie, CNBC-TV18, Business Standard and EconomicTimes.com. During her stints at these platforms, she produced data-driven market stories, curated and steered live blogs during volatile trading sessions, and conducted interviews with market veterans, fund managers, economists, and industry experts. Her work often combines on-ground reporting with analytical depth, helping readers make sense of daily market fluctuations and longer-term trends. An alumnus of the Symbiosis Institute of Media and Communications and Hansraj College, University of Delhi, Pranati brings a strong academic foundation to her journalism. She specialises in real-time financial reporting, with a keen focus on precision, balance, and insight, aiming to decode market movements in a way that is both informative and accessible to readers across experience levels.
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