Should investors buy or sell gold and silver this Navratri week? Commodity Outlook for precious metal traders
Gold and silver prices are likely to remain in focus during the Navratri week as traders track US inflation data, Treasury yields, Federal Reserve policy expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. After facing pressure earlier in the week, both precious metals recovered towards Friday as the dollar and US bond yields eased, although expectations of further monetary tightening continue to pose a risk to the outlook.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for December delivery rose ₹1,893, or 1.27%, to ₹1,51,503 per 10 grams on Friday, supported by fresh positions and firm spot demand. The contract traded in a business turnover of 5,341 lots. Gold also gained around 1.3% over the week, recovering from a two-month low recorded earlier.
Silver, meanwhile, traded at ₹2,25,820 per kg on Friday, up ₹65, or 0.03%. The metal also recovered from its early-week decline, although its overall technical trend remains weaker than gold's.
The recovery in precious metals followed easing US Treasury yields and a softer dollar, which helped offset concerns over persistent inflation and the possibility of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. In the domestic market, the rupee's weakness near record lows provided additional support to bullion prices by making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive.
The near-term direction of gold and silver will depend on whether the dollar and global bond yields continue to ease. A further decline in yields could support prices, while persistent inflation and expectations of additional rate hikes may limit gains. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and movements in the rupee will also remain important drivers for domestic bullion.
According to Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, a SEBI-registered online trading and wealthtech firm, both metals have shown signs of recovery after finding buying interest at lower levels. However, the technical outlook differs: gold displays a mildly positive bias, while silver's trend remains weak but shows signs of stabilisation.
MCX gold ended the week on a firmer note near ₹1,51,499, recovering sharply from its weekly low of ₹1,47,916. Ponmudi said the weekly candle's long lower wick near ₹1,48,000 signals strong buying interest at lower levels, while the relative strength index (RSI) has stabilised near 52.
The immediate resistance zone is placed at ₹1,52,000– ₹1,52,600, followed by ₹1,54,000– ₹1,54,700. A sustained move above the immediate resistance band could strengthen the recovery and open the way for further gains towards the higher resistance zone.
On the downside, ₹1,50,000– ₹1,50,700 is the immediate support area. A break below this zone could trigger a decline in gold towards ₹1,47,300– ₹1,48,000.
Ponmudi attributed the recovery in global gold prices to weak US jobs data and easing Treasury yields, which reduced expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. The rupee's slide to a record low near 96.8 per dollar also bolstered domestic gold prices.
The near-term bias for MCX gold remains mildly positive, but a sustained move above ₹1,52,600 would be needed to confirm stronger upward momentum.
MCX silver ended the week largely unchanged near ₹2,25,755, after buying interest emerged during a sharp decline towards ₹2,19,800. According to Ponmudi, the weekly candle's doji-like structure, accompanied by a long lower shadow, indicates rejection of the ₹2,20,000 zone. However, the MACD indicator remains negative, suggesting the broader technical setup remains weak.
Immediate resistance is placed at ₹2,28,000– ₹2,29,000, followed by ₹2,32,000– ₹2,33,000. A sustained move above these levels could improve the recovery momentum.
On the downside, ₹2,23,000– ₹2,24,000 is the immediate support zone. A break below it could drag silver towards ₹2,19,000– ₹2,20,000.
Global silver prices rebounded on Friday as easing US yields and a softer dollar offset the pressure seen earlier in the week. A weaker rupee also offered some domestic support.
Ponmudi said silver's trend remains weak but is stabilising. A sustained close above ₹2,29,000 would be needed to signal a more meaningful recovery.
Gold's technical setup is relatively stronger, with the recovery from the weekly low and stabilising RSI supporting a mildly positive near-term bias. However, traders will need to watch the ₹1,52,000– ₹1,52,600 resistance zone for signs of a sustained breakout. A failure to hold the ₹1,50,000– ₹1,50,700 support band could revive downside pressure.
Silver, in contrast, remains technically weaker despite the buying interest seen near ₹2,20,000. Traders will need to watch whether it can sustain a move above ₹2,28,000– ₹2,29,000. Until then, the recovery may remain tentative, particularly with the MACD still in negative territory.
Overall, the outlook for precious metals during Navratri week will hinge on movements in the dollar, US Treasury yields, inflation data, Federal Reserve rate expectations and geopolitical developments. Traders should watch the key support and resistance levels closely, as a decisive breakout or breakdown could determine the next directional move in both metals.
Dhanya Nagasundaram works as a Content Producer at LiveMint, specializing in news related to financial markets, stocks, and business. With over eight years of experience in journalism and content creation, she has honed her skills in data-driven reporting and market analysis. Her focus is on monitoring stock trends, initial public offerings (IPOs), corporate news, policy shifts, and larger economic trends that affect investors and market players. <br><br> At LiveMint, Dhanya consistently writes and produces articles that make complex financial topics accessible to readers. She keeps a close eye on equity markets, commodities, and macroeconomic indicators, assisting audiences in comprehending how global and domestic events influence investment perspectives. Her stories frequently underscore emerging trends within sectors, the IPO market, company earnings results, and market strategies pertinent to both retail and institutional investors. <br><br> Before her tenure at LiveMint, Dhanya accumulated a wealth of professional experience at various companies, including MintGenie, Informist, Cogenics, Chary Publications, KPMG, and the Royal Bank of Scotland. These positions allowed her to establish a solid foundation in financial research, reporting, and content creation. <br><br> Throughout her career, she has explored numerous subjects such as trading strategies, commodities, IPOs, wealth generation, corporate profits, and macroeconomic indicators. Her background in both financial journalism and corporate settings has given her the ability to tackle stories with analytical rigor while ensuring clarity for her audience. Through her contributions, Dhanya strives to deliver insightful, trustworthy, and investor-centric financial content.
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