Standard Chartered pushes $2T stablecoin forecast to 2030 as transaction volumes grow

The bank identified four distinct stablecoin markets, with USDC leading payments and AI transactions as competition intensifies over reserve yields.

Standard Chartered says stablecoin transaction activity continues to grow even as the market’s overall value has stalled, suggesting existing stablecoins are circulating more frequently rather than new supply driving growth.

In a report shared with Cointelegraph, the bank said it now expects stablecoin market capitalization to reach $2 trillion by 2030, two years later than initially projected, after the market plateaued at roughly $309 billion this year.

Geoffrey Kendrick, StanChart’s head of digital assets research, said stablecoin usage continues to expand despite slower supply growth, with existing stablecoins changing hands more frequently as their use cases diversify.

Kendrick identified four distinct markets, each with different competitive dynamics. Tether’s USDt (USDT) dominates emerging-market savings, while Circle’s USDC (USDC) leads developed-market payments. USDC and Ethena’s USDe have established strong positions in crypto trading, while USDC also leads the much smaller market for transactions between AI agents.

The bank expects the most intense competition in developed market payments, where challengers such as USDG, M^0 and multibank stablecoin networks are pursuing alternatives to existing payment infrastructure.

According to Kendrick, how issuers and payment networks divide the yield generated by stablecoin reserves could ultimately determine which competitors gain market share.

Related: Crypto’s billions are back, but the premiums aren’t

US regulatory and accounting changes could shape stablecoin use

Standard Chartered’s revised forecast comes as regulatory and accounting developments in the United States could influence how businesses use stablecoins.

Since the GENIUS Act passed in 2025, US regulators have proposed rules governing stablecoin issuance, reserve requirements and consumer protections. Some measures have also clarified the limits of those protections, including a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) proposal that would exclude stablecoin holders from pass-through deposit insurance.

The Treasury Department has also advanced implementation of the law. In August, it proposed rules restricting stablecoin issuance in the United States to federally or state-authorized issuers, with the licensing requirements expected to take effect in January 2027.

Separately, in August, the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB), which sets US accounting standards, proposed an update that could affect how companies report certain stablecoins on their balance sheets.

Blockchain payments company Tempo said the proposed changes could make it easier for businesses to use stablecoins for payments and settlement without introducing additional accounting complications.

Related: Crypto Biz: Wall Street and crypto fight for the same turf

Subscribe to daily byte-sized crypto news from Cointelegraph

More on the subject