Tesla shares slip as capex cut clouds Musk’s AI, robotics ambitions

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Agencies

The company on Wednesday lowered its 2026 capex forecast to about $20 billion from more than $25 billion, after spending much less than expected on AI and robotics in the third quarter. The lower spending helped Tesla deliver surprise positive free cash flow, but it also left investors weighing whether tighter capital deployment could slow the growth story behind the stock.

Capex cut puts AI and robotics plans under scrutiny

The spending outlook has become particularly important for Tesla, whose valuation is heavily tied to future bets such as the Cybercab and Optimus.

“Capex is a delicate balance in this market,” said Josh Gilbert, lead analyst at eToro, according to Reuters. “Investors welcome a larger budget if they can see returns, but a smaller one hints at slowing growth.”

“For a stock priced on Cybercab and Optimus, that (capex forecast cut) explains why the shares went nowhere on a result that beat on most measures.”

Tesla did not specify which areas would see spending cuts. Its leadership instead attributed the adjustment to managing capital deployment efficiently, Reuters reported.

SpaceX tie up adds another layer of uncertainty

The stronger cash position could prove useful as Musk explores combining Tesla with SpaceX, a significantly more capital intensive business.

Tesla and SpaceX have formed special committees to discuss a potential mega merger, Musk said on Tuesday. Such a combination could create an AI, cars, satellites and rockets conglomerate worth about $3.5 trillion, according to Reuters.

“The risk is Tesla now enters a period of limbo while investors await news on a potential combination with SpaceX, which ... might face significant regulatory hurdles,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

Tesla shares have fallen about 14% this year, even as the Nasdaq has gained roughly 15%. The stock is also about 23% below its record intraday high of $498.83 reached in December. At the same time, its valuation remains far above traditional US automakers, with Tesla trading at 188.24 times forward earnings estimates, compared with 6.58 for Ford and 5.16 for General Motors.