The week ahead in numbers: Auto sales, PMI numbers, US mid-term elections

Every week, Mint’s Plain Facts tracks key economic trends, data releases and global events shaping the week ahead. This week, domestic auto sales and manufacturing PMI figures will offer crucial signals on consumer sentiment and industrial momentum as India heads into the festive peak.

Quarterly earnings from consumer staples majors will show how rising food inflation and a widening rural-urban price gap are affecting household budgets. In the US, mid-term elections will determine control of Congress and shape the legislative agenda in Washington.

The Bharat Renewable Energy Summit, meanwhile, will bring into focus India's estimated $220 billion investment requirement to expand its clean energy infrastructure.

Vrooming ahead

After robust sales in September, the domestic automobile industry is heading into a high-stakes festival season, with Diwali approaching. October data from the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (Fada), expected this week, will offer an early indication of consumer demand during the crucial buying period.

September saw vehicle sales across segments surge 31.8% year-on-year, led by major automakers such as Maruti Suzuki, Mahindra & Mahindra and Tata Motors. However, the growth was partly amplified by base effects, as purchases had been deferred ahead of a cut in the goods and services tax (GST).

October will provide the first cleaner year-on-year comparison. Fada surveys point to strong dealer optimism, with more than 75% expecting sales growth to continue through the end of the year. Yet affordability remains a concern amid rising prices. Provisional sales data for the Navratri period, from 11-20 October, showed a 6.5% year-on-year sales decline.

Business activity

The final October Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), due on 2 November, will offer a fuller picture of manufacturing demand, export orders and hiring as businesses prepare for the December quarter.

Manufacturing faces a more uneven outlook, with slower purchasing activity and cautious hiring contrasting with stronger order inflows. Services, meanwhile, will be assessed on their ability to sustain growth amid domestic and overseas demand.

Flash estimates released last week showed the composite PMI rising to 56.7 in October from 55.9 in September, its highest reading in four months. New export orders expanded at their fastest pace in six months, but employment growth was at its weakest over the period. Manufacturing PMI eased to 54.9 from 55.1, while services PMI strengthened to 56.2 from 55.2

The flash survey also noted that input-cost inflation eased for a seventh consecutive month to a near one-year low in October, although higher transportation and steel costs continued to pressure businesses. Manufacturers sharply increased finished-goods inventories even as purchasing activity slowed.

The final readings, alongside new orders, employment and selling-price trends, will be important for gauging business conditions heading into the December quarter.

Rural squeeze

September-quarter results from ITC Ltd and Marico Ltd on Monday will offer clues to the resilience of rural demand and consumer goods companies' ability to sustain volume growth as household costs rise. Both companies are constituents of the Nifty Rural Index, making their performance a useful indicator of consumption trends in rural markets.

Rural inflation rose to 6.08% in September, its highest since June 2024, amid a deficient monsoon, strengthening El Niño conditions and an unfavourable base effect. The rural-urban inflation gap also widened to a 20-month high. This matters for FMCG companies as rural consumption accounts for 55.4% of the CPI basket, against 44.6% for urban consumption.

Nomura expects food and beverage inflation to rise to 8.5-9% in October-November from 5.7% in August, raising the risk of weaker consumption after the festive season. In its 1 October report, the brokerage also flagged the convergence of rural volume growth with urban levels.

Investors will watch volume growth in ITC’s cigarette and non-cigarette businesses and Marico’s Parachute and Saffola portfolios, alongside management commentary on pricing, margins and rural demand in the second half of fiscal year 2027 (FY27).

Mid-term mandate

Americans will vote in the mid-term election on 3 November, in a contest widely viewed as a referendum on President Donald Trump's performance and that of his party. Voters will elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 members. Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers.

Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% from 52% in January 2025. A Pew survey found that the economy and inflation are among voters' top concerns, with 65% saying his policies had worsened economic conditions. Halfway through Trump's second term, the election offers voters an opportunity to hold his administration accountable and could determine which party controls Congress and the legislative agenda.

However, the outcome is unlikely to drastically alter India-US ties or core trade and immigration issues. Trump’s presidential veto powers mean that even if the Democrats seize a majority in the House and Senate, they would be limited in impacting foreign policy, including stalled trade talks with India or the war against Iran that has sparked a global energy crisis.

Green goals

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the Bharat Renewable Energy Summit & Expo 2026 on 2 November, with the four-day event bringing together participants from over 130 countries at Bharat Mandapam, New Delhi. It will be held alongside the International Solar Alliance Assembly and the International Conference on Green Hydrogen, with discussions spanning investment, technology, energy storage and manufacturing.

The summit comes as India seeks to turn its rapid expansion in clean energy into a more reliable power system. The country has 308 GW of installed non-fossil fuel capacity and ranks third globally in renewable energy and solar capacity, and fourth in wind power. It aims to reach 500 GW of non-fossil capacity by 2030.

As of 30 September, non-fossil sources accounted for 55% of India's installed power capacity, having first overtaken fossil fuels in June 2025. Coal nevertheless remains the largest single source, accounting for 40.3% of installed capacity, followed by solar at 30.6%, wind at 10.6% and hydropower at 9.3%.

The renewable energy ministry estimates that India will need $220 billion in investment between 2027 and 2030 to meet its clean energy ambitions.