The week ahead in numbers: Inflation pressures, IMF’s growth forecasts, crude output

Every week, Mint’s Plain Facts highlights key data releases and announcements to watch in the week ahead. This week’s data releases will offer fresh signals on price pressures, India’s growth outlook, trade flows, employment trends, and the impact of the West Asia war on global oil supplies. Inflation is expected to breach the 5% mark in September. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could raise India’s growth forecast following the stronger-than-expected Q1 growth. India’s trade deficit could take a hit in September since oil prices surged again. Unemployment could rise in September upon conclusion of the sowing season, and Opec’s oil market report will show whether a decline in oil production was behind the price surge.

Mounting prices

India’s retail inflation data for September may show a further rise in price pressures amid rising food prices, higher fuel costs and an unfavourable base effect. A Mint poll of 19 economists estimates inflation at 5.6%, up from 4.8% in August and its highest level in 23 months. If the number holds true, this would be the first reading above 5% since December 2024 and the fourth consecutive month that inflation has remained above the Reserve Bank of India’s 4% medium-term target.

Food inflation rose to 6% in August and could remain elevated amid deficient rainfall, which was 15% below normal. Fuel costs are also under pressure from the West Asia war, with crude oil prices rising again. Higher input costs are feeding through to consumer prices, while stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 7.8% in the June quarter adds to inflation concerns.

An unfavourable base effect over the coming months could further push up headline inflation. Core inflation, which excludes food, electricity, gas and other fuels as per CMIE, rose to 4.3% in August. Even after excluding precious jewellery prices, it stood at 3.1%, up from 1.9% before the West Asia war.

Slim win

India’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed 1.3% year-on-year to $26.87 billion in August. A Mint analysis of its top 100 trading partners showed that India’s trade balance improved with 51 countries in August, up from 47 in July, while it worsened with 42, marginally down from 43 last month. A decline of more than $5 million in trade balance compared to the same month last year was considered worsened, and an increase of similar magnitude was considered improved. The deterioration in trade deficit was sharp with four major partners: China, Russia, the UAE and the US, accounting for about $5.4 billion of the increase in trade deficit. Overall, the deterioration with some partners widened the deficit by $11.7 billion year-on-year, almost offsetting the $11.6 billion improvement with others. September’s data, due this week, will likely show the impact of a surge in oil prices on India’s trade deficit.

Growth test

The IMF will release its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, updating its assessment of global growth amid persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainty. For India, the projections come at a time when stronger-than-expected economic growth has contrasted with a lower ranking in the global GDP league table. In the estimates released in April, India was widely expected to overtake Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy, but it slipped to sixth place for FY26 and FY27 after a revision to its GDP series and a sharp depreciation of the rupee.

The IMF projected India’s economy to grow 6.5% in FY27 in its April outlook, below estimates from several other institutions. India grew 7.8% in the June quarter, prompting the central bank to raise its full-year growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%. Last week, the World Bank raised its FY27 growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.6% estimated in its April 2026 India Development Update, while S&P Global Ratings and Moody’s Ratings revised theirs to 7% from 6.6% and 6%, respectively.

Data shows the IMF’s past forecasts have fallen short of actual growth. For FY26, it projected growth of 6.2% in April 2025 and 6.6% in October 2025, against actual growth of 7.7%. The latest outlook will offer a fresh assessment of the growth and ranking decision.

Crude reset

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) will release its September oil market report on Tuesday, as the West Asia war continues to disrupt crude production. Since the conflict began in late February, output trends among major producers have diverged, with Iran and Saudi Arabia recording sustained declines while the UAE has seen a sharp uptick in production.

Iran’s average daily crude production fell 8.1% year-on-year in March, with the decline widening to 35.2% by August. Saudi Arabia saw its output fall 14.9% in March and 25.1% in August. Iraq and the UAE, which recorded year-on-year declines of 57.9% and 35.6%, respectively, in March, have since recovered. By August, Iraq’s output remained 15.9% below its year-earlier level, while the UAE recorded a 17.8% increase, standing out among major producers. Russia, another Opec+ member, saw a smaller decline of 5% in August. September’s update will show whether the sharp price rise in crude oil was due to worsening output from West Asia.

Job trends

The statistics ministry will release monthly PLFS data for September on Thursday, providing the latest estimates of India’s unemployment rate, labour force participation rate (LFPR) and worker population ratio (WPR). The data will show whether unemployment remains around 5% as in August or rises. This year, rural and urban unemployment have moved in opposite directions. The rural unemployment rate eased to 4.1% in August from 5.1% in May, while the urban rate rose to 6.8% from 6.6%. However, as kharif sowing season generally concludes by the end of August, unemployment figures could rise, especially in rural areas.

Last year in the same period, the unemployment rate edged 10 basis points up to 5.2%. The increase was concentrated in rural areas, where joblessness rose by 30 basis points to 4.6%.

While unemployment figures were sharply better in August 2026 compared to the same period last year, it would require a sharper rise in joblessness in September to make the situation worse than last year.