Uneven rains may keep price of spices elevated

"Despite a higher area under spice cultivation, we can see an impact on yield due to the effect of El Nino, especially in Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu," said Sandeep Voddepalli, vice president, BigHaat India. The carry-over stocks from last year are low and export demand is expected to increase which will keep the prices in the retail market elevated," he added.

Turmeric production is projected to fall 10% in 2026-27 despite a 10-15% increase in acreage, with the decline potentially deepening to 20-25% if dry conditions persist, according to industry estimates. India grows roughly 75% of the world's turmeric and holds over 60% of world trade in it.

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Red chilli sowing in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana has been delayed by nearly a month, mainly because of inadequate rainfall, said a large exporter of spices, adding that a late harvest will keep prices elevated.

Cumin acreage is likely to decline amid adverse weather and soil-moisture concerns, while coriander and celery acreage may increase on the back of low carry-over stocks and attractive prices. Ginger and garlic prices have surged in recent weeks, and industry experts expect the rally to continue. The risks come as food inflation has accelerated. Retail food inflation rose to 7.74% in September from 5.97% in August, while overall retail inflation increased to 5.54%. Ginger and garlic prices have also surged, with industry experts expecting the rally to continue. Wholesale prices of turmeric and dry red chillies were up 23.37% and 35.96%, respectively, year-on-year in September, while garlic prices nearly doubled, according to the figures cited from wholesale price data.

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