Worst Samvat in 15 years! Sensex, Nifty crash up to 8%: Can investors expect a bull run in Samvat 2083? What experts say
Samvat 2083 Outlook: Indian stock market investors are heading into Samvat 2083 after one of their most disappointing years in over a decade, with the Sensex and Nifty 50 poised to record their worst Samvat performance in 15 years. Persistent foreign investor selling, elevated crude oil prices, rising US bond yields and the prolonged geopolitical conflict in West Asia have battered domestic equities, dragging benchmark indices down nearly 8%.
According to exchange data as of November 4, the Sensex had declined 7.9%, while the Nifty 50 had fallen 6.8% during Samvat 2082. The new Samvat will begin on November 8, coinciding with Diwali, with investors hoping for a turnaround after a prolonged period of volatility.
However, the road to recovery may not be smooth. Analysts expect global macroeconomic pressures, geopolitical uncertainty, inflation, interest rates and slowing economic growth to remain key challenges. Yet, improving corporate earnings, moderating valuations and resilient domestic fundamentals have strengthened expectations of a potential market recovery over the next 12 months.
Experts believe the correction has created opportunities for long-term investors to gradually accumulate fundamentally strong companies rather than attempt to time the market.
Despite the disappointing performance in the previous Samvat, brokerages are not giving up on Indian equities. They see this correction as an important entry point for investors.
ICICI Direct expects the market to deliver healthy double-digit returns in Samvat 2083. ICICI Direct's optimism stems partly from the improving September-quarter earnings season.
The brokerage also believes the recent correction has also made valuations more attractive. The Nifty 50's two-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has dropped to 16.6 times, compared with its 10-year average of 18.2 times. This valuation adjustment has improved the potential risk-reward equation for investors looking to enter the market.
Meanwhile, Kotak Neo is equally positive about the earnings outlook. It pointed out that Nifty 50 companies posted their strongest year-on-year earnings growth in 11 quarters in Q1FY27. It expects earnings to expand by approximately 18% in FY27 and 13% in FY28.
ICICI Direct expects Nifty earnings to compound at 16% annually over FY26-FY28, adding that it does not see any material risks to this projection. The brokerage believes earnings growth, rather than further valuation expansion or liquidity-driven gains, will become the primary driver of market returns.
A recovery may not be immediate, however. Kotak Neo expects the Nifty to trade within a broad range of 21,700-26,300 during Samvat 2083 before a clearer directional trend emerges.
The brokerage cautioned that technical indicators are yet to turn decisively positive. The formation of lower highs on both daily and weekly charts suggests that selling pressure could return and the possibility of further downside cannot be ruled out.
For investors looking to enter the market, Kotak Neo has identified 21,700-22,100 as an important accumulation zone. Rather than attempting to catch the exact bottom, it recommends staggered buying as the index approaches this range. A deeper correction towards 21,000 could present an opportunity to increase equity exposure further.
"From an investment perspective, we recommend gradual accumulation in the 22,100–21,700 zone, with additional allocation considered if the Nifty corrects toward 21,000," it said.
With market volatility expected to persist, Kotak Neo is favouring quality large-cap companies over aggressive bets on mid-cap and small-cap stocks. The preference reflects the relative outperformance of mid- and small-cap shares over the past year and the need for greater selectivity after their strong run.
For investors with medium-to-long-term horizons, the brokerage recommends focusing on businesses with sound fundamentals and sustainable earnings rather than chasing short-term market momentum.
The broader investment strategy for Samvat 2083 is to use corrections to build positions gradually, while keeping sufficient room to navigate further volatility.
The new Samvat could therefore offer a better entry point for long-term investors, but a sustained bull run will depend on earnings delivery, global developments and the return of foreign investor confidence.
Pranati Deva is a seasoned financial journalist with over a decade of experience in high-pressure newsroom environments, currently working as a Senior Sub Editor at LiveMint. Over the years, she has developed a reputation for sharp editorial judgement, a strong grasp of market dynamics, and the ability to translate complex financial developments into clear, engaging stories for a wide audience. <br><br> Her core areas of coverage include stock markets, leading listed companies, currencies, and commodities, with a particular strength in fast-paced, real-time market reporting. She is known for handling breaking market news, earnings-driven stock movements, and macroeconomic developments with speed, accuracy, and context—qualities that are essential in financial journalism. <br><br> Pranati has built a diverse and credible professional track record across some of India’s most respected news organisations, including MintGenie, CNBC-TV18, Business Standard and EconomicTimes.com. During her stints at these platforms, she produced data-driven market stories, curated and steered live blogs during volatile trading sessions, and conducted interviews with market veterans, fund managers, economists, and industry experts. Her work often combines on-ground reporting with analytical depth, helping readers make sense of daily market fluctuations and longer-term trends. An alumnus of the Symbiosis Institute of Media and Communications and Hansraj College, University of Delhi, Pranati brings a strong academic foundation to her journalism. She specialises in real-time financial reporting, with a keen focus on precision, balance, and insight, aiming to decode market movements in a way that is both informative and accessible to readers across experience levels.
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HomeMarketsWorst Samvat in 15 years! Sensex, Nifty crash up to 8%: Can investors expect a bull run in Samvat 2083? What experts say
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